Brisk Wind Advisory 18, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST MON FEB 2 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING PROBLEMS POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR COVERS MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA. A SHALLOW TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY
AND COOK INLET HAD THE HIGHEST VORTICITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW PERSIST OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY, COOK
INLET AND KENAI PENINSULA. A SHARP UPPER RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, SAINT MATHEW ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND CONTINUES TO FEED AREAS OF SNOW INTO VALDEZ AND
CORDOVA. GUSTY NORTH TO WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW OUT OF CHANNELED
TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND ALONG
THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET. AN LARGE INTENSE STORM CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH STRONG WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS HAD BROUGHT RAIN, SNOW AND
VERY STRONG WINDS INTO WESTERN BERING MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WIND WERE
FOUND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAK THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH TUESDAY. THE INTENSE 947 MB LOW
SOUTHWEST OF ATTU WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND
WEAKEN TO 968 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TUESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH KODIAK
ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES EAST BUT WEAKENS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COOK INLET WILL
SWING THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF. THE LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WILL DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.
THE AREAS OF SNOW OVER EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SNOW AND
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD TO THE LOWER KENAI PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW AND STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO BRISTOL
BAY TUESDAY MORNING. THE WIND AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE FRONT OVER THE BERING SEA WEAKENS.

BERING SEA...SNOW AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BERING SEA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE WEATHER FRONT TONIGHT THEN DIMINISHES OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF ALASKA TUESDAY AND THE FRONT
WEAKENS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BERING FRIDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
PRIBILOFS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO NEAR NOME FRIDAY. NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL SPREAD TO REST OF THE BERING BY
FRIDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE ICE EDGE.

THE LOW IN THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL DEVELOP
NEAR KODIAK THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 130, 172, 175, 185
         GALE 132, 150, 155, 165, 170, 171, 172, 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM FEB 09