Gale Warning 12, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
410 AM AKST SAT JAN 10 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A 980S LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
MAKING THE FIRST INTRUSION INTO THE AK PENN AND SOUTHCENTRAL IN
WEEKS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 20S
AND 30S OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS BRINGING SNOW WITH IT. COLD AIR IS
STILL FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE BERING AND INTERIOR AK BUT THE
RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST AK AND WESTERN CANADA IS SHOWING THE FIRST SIGNS
OF WEAKENING. CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO EXTEND ALONG THE NE GULF
COAST THIS MORNING AND IF THE NORTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS AT ALL ALONG THE
KENAI TODAY..SHOULD PUSH FARTHER INLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE PATTERN CHANGE.
THEY HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE INTERIOR FOR THE
PAST WEEK AND A HALF WITH NO SUCCESS. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS TO
JUST HOW MUCH OF A REGIME CHANGE MAY TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND. THE
MODELS ARE NOT SURE WHERE OR WHEN TO WEAKEN THIS LOW ALTHOUGH MOST
PUSH IT THROUGH KODIAK ISLAND.

THEREFORE JUST DID A SMALL BLEND TOWARD THE EC THROUGH DAY 8.
BELIEVE MOST OF THE PROBLEMS SHOULD RESOLVE THEMSELVES AFTER SUN
NIGHT BUT IN THE MEANTIME LEANED TOWARD A WEAKER SOLUTION BLENDING
THE NAM AND THE EC IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW WILL BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS BRINGS SNOW...WIND...AND INCREASING WARMTH TO THE SOUTHERN
AREAS TODAY AND SUNDAY. ON MON TEMPERATURES AGAIN COOL AND SNOW
SHOWERS RETURN AS THE LOW MOVES EAST BEFORE THE NEXT LOW BEGINS ITS
TREK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ON TUE AND WED.

FOR SW AK...THE LOW WILL BRING MORE SNOW..SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND TO
THE AK PENN AND BRISTOL BAY TODAY. THE WIND WILL CAUSE SOME WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE Y-K DELTA BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS PERSIST...WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA ON SUN. BY MON THE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR
THESE EVENTS WEAKENS IN THE GULF AND PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...A FRONT WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
TO KODIAK ISLAND TODAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL
DRY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE TODAY. HOWEVER THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BREAK AND WE MAY SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WARMER..WET AND POTENTIALLY WINDY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 132 138 150
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 125 130 140 141 165 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW JAN 09