Brisk Wind Advisory 57, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 18 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CENTERED JUST EAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.
THIS PATTERN IS NOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY
MONDAY. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF WILL WEAKEN AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE STATE IN THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE LIES THE NEXT FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOW COMPLEX IS WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW IN THE GULF. SOME OF THESE COULD CHANCE TO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
GULF COAST OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THIS
LOW WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO THE COOK
INLET AND KODIAK AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT IN THE ENTIRE COOK
INLET REGION DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS EASTERLY WAVE.
CLEARING SKIES IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF STRATUS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA
WHICH IS ENHANCED BY THE COLD AIR FLOWING OFF THE ICE EDGE WHICH IS
UNUSUALLY EXTENSIVE AND FAR SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY. THE RIDGE WILL THEN
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD REACHING THE ALCAN BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE IN SPRINGLIKE
WEATHER DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A STRONG FRONT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE RIDGE AND BRING PRECIPITATION BACK
INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 09