Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 020124
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
624 PM MST FRI AUG 1 2008

AZC019-020145-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-080802T0145Z/
PIMA AZ-
624 PM MST FRI AUG 1 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM MST
FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 621 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CORONA DE TUCSON...OR
18 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREEN VALLEY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 11 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. BE PREPARED
FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.

LAT...LON 3176 11082 3202 11093 3210 11063 3186 11051
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 067DEG 10KT 3196 11074

$$

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 020149
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
649 PM MST FRI AUG 1 2008

AZC019-020155-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-080802T0145Z/
PIMA AZ-
645 PM MST FRI AUG 1 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAS 
EXPIRED...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND EXTENDED 
UNTIL 715 PM MST TO COVER SECTIONS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WARNED 
AREA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOW IMPACTING LOCATIONS NEAR 
GREEN VALLEY WITH STRONG WINDS PRODUCING A DUST STORM AFFECTING 
INTERSTATE 19 SOUTH OF SAHUARITA. 

LAT...LON 3176 11082 3202 11093 3210 11063 3186 11051
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 067DEG 10KT 3194 11080

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST FRI AUG 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY RESULTING IN A
MORE FAVORABLE EASTERLY FLOW FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA BEGINNING THIS EVENING...BUT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN DESERTS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER HIGH GENERALLY OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO WHICH HAS CHANGED THE
STEERING FLOW TO A MORE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. THIS MORNINGS 12Z KTWC
SOUNDING WAS RATHER MOIST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WITH A PWAT OF
1.35 INCHES. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING BASED ON EXPECTED HIGH AND
LOWEST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE REVEALED THAT ANY PARCEL LIFTED WOULD
STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE CAP AT AROUND 425MB. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
HIGH CENTER IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE NE...I WOULD SUSPECT THAT THE
CAP IS PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED NOW. SO...WE COULD SEE
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MOUNTAIN TOP LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FIRE OFF
FIRST. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM WITH STEERING FLOW PUSHING THEM TO THE WEST OR WEST
NORTHWEST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST IN THAT THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN
INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ACTIVITY...AND THUS AN UPSWING IN RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH IS PROGGED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF TO SLIDE WEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...BUT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS TO EXACTLY HOW MUCH THIS WILL AFFECT
ARIZONA. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP NEAR CLIMO POPS IN THE GRIDS BEYOND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. ON MONDAY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL. THEREAFTER...HIGHS NEAR NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY RESULTING IN A MORE
FAVORABLE EASTERLY FLOW FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
BEGINNING TODAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPING EAST OF A KSAD-KDUG LINE...WITH CELLS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD KTUS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BRIEFLY REDUCING VSBYS TO 1-3SM. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
556 PM MST FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NW MARANA             32.50N 111.27W
08/01/2008                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF DAMAGE TO HANGER AT PINAL AIRPARK.

&&

JDAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
604 PM MST FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NW MARANA             32.50N 111.27W
08/01/2008                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES GREATER THAN ONE FOOT IN DIAMETER
            UPROOTED AND 747 PLANE BLOWN 45 DEGREES FROM PARKED
            POSITION AT PINAL COUNTY AIRPARK.

&&

BTURNER