Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 020034
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
534 PM MST FRI AUG 1 2008

AZC019-021-020045-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-080802T0045Z/
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
532 PM MST FRI AUG 1 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MST
FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTIES...

AT 529 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARANA...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PICTURE ROCKS BY 545 PM MST...

IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE A DUST
STORM WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR OR BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE. REMEMBER
IT IS DANGEROUS TO DRIVE IN A DUST STORM...PARTICULARLY IN OPEN
AREAS. THIS DUST STORM WILL BE ALONG INTERSTATE 10 FROM RED ROCK TO 
MARANA.

LAT...LON 3230 11129 3246 11140 3256 11115 3238 11102
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 083DEG 10KT 3241 11120

$$

CS

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 020042
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
542 PM MST FRI AUG 1 2008

AZC019-021-020051-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-080802T0045Z/
PIMA AZ-PINAL AZ-
541 PM MST FRI AUG 1 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM MST...

LAT...LON 3230 11129 3246 11140 3256 11115 3238 11102
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 083DEG 10KT 3241 11123

THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS 
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 10 IN BLOWING DUST.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST FRI AUG 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY RESULTING IN A
MORE FAVORABLE EASTERLY FLOW FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA BEGINNING THIS EVENING...BUT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN DESERTS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER HIGH GENERALLY OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO WHICH HAS CHANGED THE
STEERING FLOW TO A MORE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. THIS MORNINGS 12Z KTWC
SOUNDING WAS RATHER MOIST IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WITH A PWAT OF
1.35 INCHES. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING BASED ON EXPECTED HIGH AND
LOWEST DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE REVEALED THAT ANY PARCEL LIFTED WOULD
STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE CAP AT AROUND 425MB. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE
HIGH CENTER IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE NE...I WOULD SUSPECT THAT THE
CAP IS PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED NOW. SO...WE COULD SEE
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY IN
THE EARLY EVENING. MOUNTAIN TOP LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY FIRE OFF
FIRST. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM WITH STEERING FLOW PUSHING THEM TO THE WEST OR WEST
NORTHWEST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST IN THAT THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN
INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE ACTIVITY...AND THUS AN UPSWING IN RAIN CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH IS PROGGED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF TO SLIDE WEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...BUT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS TO EXACTLY HOW MUCH THIS WILL AFFECT
ARIZONA. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP NEAR CLIMO POPS IN THE GRIDS BEYOND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. ON MONDAY EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND 2 TO 4 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL. THEREAFTER...HIGHS NEAR NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY AND INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY RESULTING IN A MORE
FAVORABLE EASTERLY FLOW FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
BEGINNING TODAY...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPING EAST OF A KSAD-KDUG LINE...WITH CELLS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD KTUS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BRIEFLY REDUCING VSBYS TO 1-3SM. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON