Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 12, 2008Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 12, 2008, 5:09 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2008, 5:09 PM MST (00:09 UTC)
Expired: Jul 12, 2008, 6:00 PM MST
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Cochise County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 925 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1478 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 12 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KTWC 130009
SVRTWC
AZC003-130100-
/O.NEW.KTWC.SV.W.0030.080713T0009Z-080713T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
509 PM MST SAT JUL 12 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

* UNTIL 600 PM MST

* AT 500 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR   
  SUNIZONA...OR 24 MILES SOUTH OF WILLCOX...AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
  AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. BE PREPARED
FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.

LAT...LON 3200 10949 3175 10956 3185 10981 3203 10979
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 289DEG 18KT 3191 10965

$$

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 130027
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
527 PM MST SAT JUL 12 2008

AZC003-130100-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-080713T0100Z/
COCHISE AZ-
526 PM MST SAT JUL 12 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MST
FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY...

AT 518 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED OVER SUNIZONA...OR 28 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF 
WILLCOX...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF COCHISE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3200 10949 3175 10956 3185 10981 3203 10979
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 289DEG 18KT 3188 10956

$$

MOLLERE

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 130053
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
553 PM MST SAT JUL 12 2008

AZC003-130101-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-080713T0100Z/
COCHISE AZ-
551 PM MST SAT JUL 12 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 600 PM MST...

AT 545 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE STORM THAT WAS DETERMINED TO BE SEVERE OVER SUNIZONA HAS 
DECREASED IN STRENGTH CONSIDERABLY...AND IS NO LONGER SEVERE. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE AT 600 PM MST. 

LAT...LON 3200 10949 3175 10956 3185 10981 3203 10979
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 289DEG 18KT 3184 10942

$$

MOLLERE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 12, 1:45 PM MST, 3 hours 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 1:45 PM MST, 3 hours 24 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
145 PM MST SAT JUL 12 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR WESTERN ARIZONA WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTH THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
A MORE TYPICAL JULY MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH PROXIMITY OF LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVERHEAD. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS WELL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL HANGING IN THE 1.75 INCHES RANGE AND
SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE 60S. ONLY TAKING A COUPLE OF HOURS OF HEATING
TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THIS MORNING. VERY WEAK FLOW...MAIN CONCERN IS
ONCE AGAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.
COVERAGE SHOULD END UP HEAVY SCATTERED TO LOW END NUMEROUS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE LOW FILLS THEN SHEARS OUT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND FLOW
PICKS UP ONCE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH CENTER WOBBLES AND
RECONSOLIDATES EAST. NORMAL TO HEAVY SUMMER THUNDERSTORM SEASON
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NEW WEEK...WE LOOSE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW BUT NICE H7 THETA E RIDGE WRAPS AROUND THE NEW
HIGH POSITION RIGHT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. PROBABLY KNOCK THE 60
PERCENT COVERAGE BACK TO THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE BY MONDAY OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-7KFT AGL...WITH LOWER CEILINGS IN
HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS LOW
AS 1 MILE OBSCURING MOUNTAINS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 11, 11:02 PM MST, 18 hours 7 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1102 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

AZZ019-029>035-120715-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
1102 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 5:48 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	117 min
Jul 12, 6:45 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Graham	2 hr
Jul 12, 7:45 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise	2 hr
Jul 13, 7:49 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Santa Cruz	116 min
Jul 13, 8:01 AM MST	Areal Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	6 hr
Jul 13, 11:55 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pinal	110 min
Jul 13, 12:29 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pinal	2 hr
Jul 13, 1:21 PM MST	Areal Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	12 hr
Jul 13, 2:25 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pinal	4 hr
Jul 13, 3:12 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima, Santa Cruz	2 hr
Jul 13, 3:24 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	111 min
Jul 13, 4:06 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Pima	114 min
Jul 13, 4:46 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	59 min
Jul 13, 4:48 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Cochise	117 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.