Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Tucson, AZ

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 120237
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
737 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

AZC019-120300-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-080712T0300Z/
PIMA AZ-
735 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST
FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 727 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED BETWEEN COVERED WELLS AND SANTA ROSA AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST 
AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SIL 
NAGGIA AND AK CHIN

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND BLOWING DUST. BE PREPARED
FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.

LAT...LON 3239 11212 3227 11172 3204 11202 3211 11219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 263DEG 5KT 3212 11202

$$

000 
WWUS55 KTWC 120259
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
759 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

AZC019-120306-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0025.000000T0000Z-080712T0300Z/
PIMA AZ-
756 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 800 PM MST...

THE SEVERE STORM NEAR COVERED WELLS AND SANTA ROSA HAS DECREASED IN 
INTENSITY AND IS NO LONER SEVERE. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 800 PM MST. A CLUSTER OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM 
COVERED WELLS TO NEAR SANTA ROSA AND TO EAST OF SIL NAGGIA. 

LAT...LON 3239 11212 3227 11172 3204 11202 3211 11219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 263DEG 5KT 3212 11199

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT BEGINS TO BREAK APART. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT ANOTHER UPSWING MAY OCCUR LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO AZ AND IS
BEGINNING TO SHEAR. THE UPPER LEVEL CENTER IS STILL ELONGATED AND
INTACT AND SE AZ IS ON THE EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH PUSHED INTO SW
AZ THIS MORNING. SKIES HAVE PARTIALLY CLEARED...ONLY TO BE QUICKLY
FILLED IN BY TROPICAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TOPS SO FAR HAVE
BEEN VERY WARM...AND THE CELLS THEMSELVES HAVE BEEN MOVING AT
10-15KTS. WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ALL THE INGREDIENTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO PLACE FOR THE SE 1/3 OF THE CWA WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS
NOW LINING UP AND STARTING TO TRAIN NNE OUT OF SONORA. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HELP OF A LITTLE
SUNSHINE...A 16KFT FREEZING LEVEL...PRECIP WATER NEAR 2 INCHES...
AND MODEST 10-15KTS OF SSW LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HAVE JUST ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA. WILL REDUCE POPS FROM TUCSON METRO AND
POINTS WEST WHERE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS BEEN RATHER SPOTTY...AND A
COMBINATION OF THE DRY SLOT AND UNRECOVERED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
HELPED KEEP INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED SO FAR. THIS DOES NOT MEAN
THAT AREA IS OUT OF THE WOODS YET. PRECIP WATER IS STILL VERY
HIGH...AND WITH THE WARM CORE STILL OVER W AZ...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
WARM TOPPED REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WILL RETAIN HEAVY RAIN WORDING
IN THE ZONES BORDERING THE WATCH AND KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS IN
CASE IT HAS TO BE EXPANDED.

ONCE AGAIN WE WILL LIKELY DEAL WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND REMNANT
CONVECTION SAT MORNING. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS LIGHT S-SW. LIKE
THE POPS WE HAVE OUT ALREADY FOR SAT/SAT EVENING...WHICH FAVOR THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE VALLEYS AND MARK A DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE. OF
COURSE WITH PRECIP WATERS STILL RUNNING 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...ANY CONVECTION WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN RISK DESPITE
THE WEAKENING DYNAMICS. OVERALL THOUGH...TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...LESS NUMEROUS...LESS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...AND MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES. ONE WRINKLE IN THE WORKS IS THAT A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
IS PASSING ACROSS S END OF THE GULF OF CA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DISRUPTED THE PRESSURE
DIFFERENTIAL UP THE GULF SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT KIND OF MOISTURE
INFLUX WE MAY SEE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT THROWS THE CHANCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT DRYING INTO EVEN MORE DOUBT. SO EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
BACKING POPS DOWN...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY ACTIVE WEEKEND
AHEAD.

THERE IS SOME CHANGE IN THINKING ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE NEXT
WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE
MONSOON RIDGE WILL RECONSOLIDATE OVER THE S PLAINS AND BRIDGE INTO
NM DURING THE 1ST HALF OF THE WEEK. WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AROUND...BUT IF I HAD TO PICK A DAY WHERE IT WILL SUPPRESS
TSTMS TO A NOTICEABLE DEGREE...IT WOULD BE TUE. AFTER THAT...IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE THE DOOR WILL OPEN FOR A SERIES OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
LOWS TO MOVE W ACROSS MEXICO AND APPROACH AZ AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NW
INTO THE 4 CORNERS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOISTENING US BACK UP AND
TURN OUR STEERING FLOW TO THE E OR NE. WILL BUY INTO THIS CAUTIOUSLY
AND START BRINGING POPS UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO BY DAYS 6/7.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-7KFT AGL...
THOUGH LOWER IN HEAVY RAIN. VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH HEAVY RAIN AS
LOW AS 1 MILE WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM BAJA. THIS SYSTEM IN
COMBINATION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINS AS WELL AS VERY HIGH OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT MST ZONES SOUTHERN 30/34/35.

PYTLAK

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

AZZ030-034-035-120700-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY-
300 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...FOR
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. SEE FFATWC /WGUS65
KTWC/ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALL WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THEY WILL MAINLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...A FEW COULD LINGER OR REDEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST...SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ029-032-033-120700-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-
300 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RATHER ISOLATED TODAY...THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE. THUS
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY SHOWER OR STORM TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALL WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THEY WILL MAINLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...A FEW COULD LINGER OR REDEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST...SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ019-120700-
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-
300 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FEW COULD
PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALL WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL MAINLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...A
FEW COULD LINGER OR REDEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN VERY MOIST...SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ031-120700-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
300 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE AN
INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PYTLAK