Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO UNFOLD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH NOON SUNDAY
AS SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN
TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR A KGAG-KOKC-KMLC
WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS THE INSENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS.

HOWEVER...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY.

AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  87  67  86 /  80  40  20  10
FSM   73  87  69  82 /  80  70  40  20
MLC   76  91  70  86 /  40  30  30  20
BVO   71  84  63  84 / 100  40  20  10
FYV   69  81  64  81 / 100  70  30  20
BYV   66  75  62  80 / 100  80  30  20
MKO   71  86  67  82 /  70  50  20  10
MIO   68  82  64  84 / 100  60  20  10
F10   75  90  67  84 /  40  30  20  10
HHW   76  92  74  88 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ068-OKZ069.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY NEAR A LINE FROM PAWNEE TO POTEAU.
	ONSET...ONGOING...AND DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 9 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
        FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY DAY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RUNS ALONG A LINE FROM PAWNEE OKLAHOMA
TO GREENWOOD ARKANSAS.  INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH DOWNBURST
WINDS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER IMPACT.  THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
IMPACTING FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
CONDITIONS FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WHICH WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.  A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
REGIONAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER LOCAL
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL OCCASIONALLY PASS KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.  SEVERE WEATHER MAY
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS INSTABILITY RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY
NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2008

OKZ071-092230-
MCINTOSH OK-
458 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MCINTOSH

AT 458 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PIERCE...MOVING EAST AT 11 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHECOTAH...ONAPA...PIERCE...
HITCHITA...RENTIESVILLE AND COUNCIL HILL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3556 9575 3556 9562 3556 9561 3552 9537
      3531 9549 3531 9550 3530 9551 3543 9584
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 292DEG 10KT 3546 9561