Flash Flood Watch 14, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
305 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO UNFOLD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH NOON SUNDAY
AS SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN
TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR A KGAG-KOKC-KMLC
WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS THE INSENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS.

HOWEVER...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE VICINITY.

AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA
AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S..

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  87  67  86 /  80  40  20  10
FSM   73  87  69  82 /  80  70  40  20
MLC   76  91  70  86 /  40  30  30  20
BVO   71  84  63  84 / 100  40  20  10
FYV   69  81  64  81 / 100  70  30  20
BYV   66  75  62  80 / 100  80  30  20
MKO   71  86  67  82 /  70  50  20  10
MIO   68  82  64  84 / 100  60  20  10
F10   75  90  67  84 /  40  30  20  10
HHW   76  92  74  88 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ068-OKZ069.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....10

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