Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW QUICKLY TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND WILL SERVE TO CARVE OUT A EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH WHILE RIDGING AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEST. RESULTANT FLOW
WILL USHER A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY...WITH A TRUE
CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. EARLY DAY CONVECTION HAS ESTABLISHED A WELL
DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RUNNING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WHERE ONGOING STORMS ARE
TAPPING A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
SERVE AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ZONE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT.
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CARRIED ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS KEEPS MOISTURE
RETURN AT BAY. EVENTUALLY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TOP THE WESTERN
U.S. RIDGE AND SLIDE ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE
REGION. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A
RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE
DEVELOPING PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND MAY YIELD AN ACTIVE MCS PERIOD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES BENEATH PREVAILING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  85  62  88 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   67  87  61  88 /  60  10  10   0
MLC   68  87  61  90 /  60  10  10   0
BVO   61  85  58  87 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   61  82  55  83 /  30  10  10   0
BYV   63  81  58  81 /  30  10  10   0
MKO   66  83  62  87 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   63  83  60  85 /  20   0   0   0
F10   66  84  62  87 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   69  88  64  91 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTH
                                OF A MCALESTER TO POTEAU LINE.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THIS WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO AROUND 60 MILES
PER HOUR WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE ALSO
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANT
DAYS...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING BY MID NEXT WEEK AND
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.