River Flood Warning 119, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW QUICKLY TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND WILL SERVE TO CARVE OUT A EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH WHILE RIDGING AMPLIFIES FURTHER WEST. RESULTANT FLOW
WILL USHER A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY SUNDAY...WITH A TRUE
CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. EARLY DAY CONVECTION HAS ESTABLISHED A WELL
DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RUNNING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WHERE ONGOING STORMS ARE
TAPPING A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
SERVE AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE ZONE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT.
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE CARRIED ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS KEEPS MOISTURE
RETURN AT BAY. EVENTUALLY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TOP THE WESTERN
U.S. RIDGE AND SLIDE ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TOWARD THE
REGION. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A
RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE
DEVELOPING PATTERN BY NEXT WEEKEND MAY YIELD AN ACTIVE MCS PERIOD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES BENEATH PREVAILING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  85  62  88 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   67  87  61  88 /  60  10  10   0
MLC   68  87  61  90 /  60  10  10   0
BVO   61  85  58  87 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   61  82  55  83 /  30  10  10   0
BYV   63  81  58  81 /  30  10  10   0
MKO   66  83  62  87 /  30  10   0   0
MIO   63  83  60  85 /  20   0   0   0
F10   66  84  62  87 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   69  88  64  91 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTH
                                OF A MCALESTER TO POTEAU LINE.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THIS WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO AROUND 60 MILES
PER HOUR WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE ALSO
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
THE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DRY AND PLEASANT
DAYS...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING BY MID NEXT WEEK AND
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             MCALESTER               34.93N 95.77W
06/28/2008  E0.88 INCH       PITTSBURG          OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALSO ISOLATED TREE DAMAGE IN TOWN DUE TO THUNDERSTORM
            WINDS.

&&

JBM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
419 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

OKZ049-075-076-282215-
LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
419 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN LE FLORE...NORTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA AND SOUTHERN LATIMER

AT 419 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF YANUSH...MOVING EAST AT 18 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...YANUSH...HIGGINS...TALIHINA...
TUSKAHOMA...KIAMICHI...ALBION AND SARDIS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3484 9491 3457 9504 3461 9550 3482 9547
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 274DEG 16KT 3469 9527

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

OKZ049-076-282215-
LE FLORE OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
420 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN LE FLORE AND NORTHEASTERN PUSHMATAHA

AT 420 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HONOBIA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OCTAVIA AND HONOBIA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3446 9506 3462 9495 3461 9445 3451 9445
      3450 9446 3451 9501 3449 9503 3446 9504
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 291DEG 9KT 3453 9493

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
521 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

OKZ049-282300-
PUSHMATAHA OK-
521 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL PUSHMATAHA

AT 521 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTH OF SNOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CORINNE...RATTAN...CLOUDY...
FINLEY...SNOW AND OLETA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3417 9546 3439 9551 3451 9539 3443 9505
      3425 9504 3424 9515 3416 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 314DEG 31KT 3441 9537

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