Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2008

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

April 23, 2008Carroll County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Apr 23, 2008, 3:12 PM CDT for Carroll County, Arkansas. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 23, 2008, 3:12 PM CDT (20:12 UTC)
Expired: Apr 23, 2008, 3:45 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Carroll County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1260 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -86 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 868 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 25 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 23, 2:49 PM CDT, 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 23, 2:49 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS HIGHLIGHT THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A VERY MUDDLED SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT NOTED NEAR THE RED RIVER AND A CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS SRN KS INTO SRN MO. THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED TO OUR W AND N THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...BUT WE/RE BEGINNING TO SEE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
OVER ERN OK AND WRN AR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
AND UNCAPPED. AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE)...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN
OK THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BY A
STRENGTHENING 40-50KT SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO NW AR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...ALTHOUGH FOCUS MAY SHIFT TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL
SCENARIO OVERNIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENT IN BLOWING UP A QPF
BULLSEYE OVER SE OK WHILE THE NAM IS FARTHER N ACROSS NE OK. THESE
FEEDBACK SIGNALS...HOWEVER...ARE OFTEN INDICATIVE OF THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF SEEN IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...WON/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE ACTIVITY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR
MORE MCS/S AND THEY TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS FAR NE OK AND NW AR WHERE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE THE LOWEST (AND HPC QPF GUIDANCE THE
HIGHEST)...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WHERE
THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXITING NW AR BY MID-LATE MORNING ON
THURSDAY. DROPPED POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.

MODELS CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER SE OK/WRN AR WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER MUCH THE PLAINS INTO THE OH/TN/MS RIVER VALLEYS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND SLY FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  82  66  75 /  80  30  20  30
FSM   64  81  63  74 /  80  60  10  50
MLC   66  82  66  75 /  90  20  10  40
BVO   63  81  63  73 /  80  30  20  30
FYV   61  77  61  71 /  90  70  10  50
BYV   61  75  62  70 /  90  80  10  50
MKO   63  80  65  74 /  90  50  10  40
MIO   62  80  64  71 /  80  50  20  40
F10   65  81  65  74 /  80  30  10  40
HHW   65  82  65  77 /  90  30  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
     OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....18

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 22, 5:05 PM CDT, 22 hours 7 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
505 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
                                 AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS IN FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...TO TAHLEQUAH...TO PAULS VALLEY OKLAHOMA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. CAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO
4000 J/KG REMAIN OVER THIS REGION. WITH FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE CAP...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF A
BENTONVILLE...TO TAHLEQUAH...TO OKEMAH LINE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION. WITH CAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OF 1000 TO
2000 J/KG...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
IN THIS AREA.

WITH WET SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH
ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED THROUGH EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS WILL POSE BOTH A SEVERE WEATHER
AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN...A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE BUT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PLAN ON AN ACTIVE WEEK AND MULTIPLE
ACTIVATIONS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 23, 11:12 AM CDT, 4 hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1112 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     HAIL             2 W STIDHAM             35.37N 95.73W
04/22/2008  E0.88 INCH       MCINTOSH           OK   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

GEW

Local storm report, Apr 23, 12:35 PM CDT, 2 hours 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1235 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             5 N KINTA               35.19N 95.24W
04/22/2008  E1.50 INCH       HASKELL            OK   PUBLIC

            AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HAIL BETWEEN 545 AND 615 PM. THE
            LARGEST HAIL WAS SILVER DOLLAR SIZE.

&&

GEW

Local storm report, Apr 23, 12:36 PM CDT, 2 hours 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1236 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             KINTA                   35.12N 95.24W
04/22/2008  E0.88 INCH       HASKELL            OK   PUBLIC

&&

GEW

Local storm report, Apr 23, 1:02 PM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
102 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     HAIL             BERRYVILLE              36.36N 93.57W
04/22/2008  E0.88 INCH       CARROLL            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RJS

Special weather statement, Apr 23, 2:54 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
254 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

OKZ054-055-059-232030-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
254 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WASHINGTON...OSAGE AND PAWNEE

AT 254 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS OSAGE...WASHINGTON AND PAWNEE COUNTIES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WASHINGTON...OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3645 9582 3643 9601 3638 9601 3622 9608
      3619 9676 3651 9694 3678 9683 3680 9676
      3693 9677 3698 9675 3700 9585
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 232DEG 15KT 3658 9636

Special weather statement, Apr 23, 3:12 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

ARZ002-232045-
CARROLL AR-
312 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN CARROLL

AT 312 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
EAST OF GREEN FOREST...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAK GROVE...DENVER...GREEN
FOREST...COIN AND URBANETTE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3628 9328 3629 9351 3651 9355 3650 9330
      3650 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 175DEG 17KT 3636 9340

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 22, 7:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Latimer, Pittsburg	42 min
Apr 23, 1:16 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig, Creek, Delaware and 16 more	23 hr
Apr 23, 2:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Pawnee, Washington	36 min
Apr 23, 3:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okmulgee	40 min
Apr 23, 3:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair	45 min
Apr 23, 3:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okmulgee, Tulsa	64 min
Apr 23, 4:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Pushmataha	66 min
Apr 23, 4:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Ottawa	65 min
Apr 23, 4:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair	62 min
Apr 23, 4:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Adair	4 hr
Apr 23, 4:52 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	53 min
Apr 23, 4:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Rogers, Washington	36 min
Apr 23, 4:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Latimer, LeFlore	63 min
Apr 23, 5:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair	43 min
Apr 23, 5:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pushmataha	36 min
Apr 23, 5:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh	65 min
Apr 23, 5:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Choctaw	63 min
Apr 23, 5:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Ottawa	47 min
Apr 23, 5:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Pittsburg	60 min
Apr 23, 5:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, LeFlore	59 min
Apr 23, 6:12 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware	12 hr
Apr 23, 6:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, Sequoyah	46 min
Apr 23, 6:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Choctaw, Pushmataha	46 min
Apr 23, 6:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Muskogee	38 min
Apr 23, 6:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee	66 min
Apr 23, 6:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Wagoner	49 min
Apr 22, 7:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	31 min
Apr 22, 7:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford	35 min
Apr 22, 8:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin	37 min
Apr 23, 3:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	29 min
Apr 23, 4:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	54 min
Apr 23, 5:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	66 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2008 Every special weather statement in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.