Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
237 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT AT 2 AM THIS MORNING WAS NEARLY STATIONARY...STRETCHING
ALONG INTERSTATE 44 BACK TOWARDS THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS LOCATED
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER OKLAHOMA...WITH
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INCREASING NORTH OF THE FRONT
AS WELL. WIND SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARE SUPPORTING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IF A SUPERCELL IS ABLE TO BECOME
MORE SURFACE BASED. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MAKE LAST MINUTE
ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/POPS BASED ON LAST LOOK AT RADAR
AND LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY. AS AN IMPULSE WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS OK AND INTO MISSOURI. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

GFS/ECMWF/WRF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. STALLED FRONT NEAR THE RED
RIVER WILL LIFT BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK RETURN OF DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NORTHWARD MOVING FRONT. STRONG JET
STREAK WILL ALSO BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF UPPER TROF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MODEL PWATS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S DURING THIS TIME.
WILL PROBABLY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THOUGH WITH UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES.
A DRYLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BEHIND BY THE COLD FRONT. UPPER DYNAMICS
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ROTATING
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DEGREE OF WINDS SHEAR
EXPECTED...AND ANY BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND
STRONG CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WILL BELOW AVERAGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE COLDER ECMWF AND WARMER
MAV GUIDANCE. MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  45  64  63 /  90  20  70 100
FSM   73  53  69  62 /  80  50  60  90
MLC   72  52  68  65 /  60  50  70  80
BVO   62  40  63  59 /  80  10  70 100
FYV   70  45  64  61 /  90  40  40 100
BYV   70  43  61  59 /  90  40  30  80
MKO   70  46  64  62 /  90  30  70 100
MIO   64  39  65  60 / 100  10  40 100
F10   71  46  66  64 /  80  30  70  90
HHW   74  59  72  66 /  60  80  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

...ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET HAS MAINTAINED STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS WELL.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL TORNADO THREAT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OVER FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...NEAR THE WARM
FRONT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS...AS UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT RESULT IN A MORE LINEAR
FORMATION OF STORMS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

IT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW FAR EAST AND SOUTH THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE AREA WILL PUSH INTO
TEXAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH
OF THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MOVES NORTH INTO THE
REGION AS A WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE COMBINATION PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR POSSIBLE
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PARTICULAR
ATTENTION SHOULD BE PAID TO THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
433 AM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 AM     HAIL             OWASSO                  36.27N 95.85W
04/08/2008  E0.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERING GROUND 86TH ST. N. AND HWY 169

&&

NMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
438 AM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 AM     HAIL             3 W LOCUST GROVE        36.20N 95.22W
04/08/2008  E0.75 INCH       MAYES              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GEW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

OKZ057-061-081030-
CRAIG OK-ROGERS OK-
445 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN ROGERS AND CRAIG

AT 445 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRALIA TO 6 MILES WEST OF BIG CABIN...MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...VINITA...BIG CABIN...WHITE OAK...CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...
PYRAMID CORNERS...BLUEJACKET...CENTRAILIA AND WELCH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3694 9503 3651 9512 3652 9543 3689 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0945Z 270DEG 44KT 3680 9531 3651 9528

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
449 AM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 AM     HAIL             S LOCUST GROVE          36.20N 95.17W
04/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       MAYES              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            INTERSECTION HIGHWAYS 412 / 82

&&

GEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     HAIL             2 N BIXBY               35.97N 95.88W
04/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NEAR 121ST AND MEMORIAL

&&

GEW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
521 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

ARZ001-081100-
BENTON AR-
521 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     BENTON

AT 521 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM MAYSVILLE TO 11 MILES WEST OF LAKE FRANCIS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS INCLUDE...ROCKY COMFORT...FAIRMOUNT...MILLER...
BENTONVILLE...SILOAM SPRINGS...ROGERS...SULPHUR SPRINGS...LOWELL...
GENTRY...MAYSVILLE...GRAVETTE...PEA RIDGE...LAKE FRANCIS...
GALLITIN...HEALING SPRINGS...SPRINGTOWN...HIGHFILL...CAVE SPRINGS...
VAUGHN...DECATUR...CENTERTON...HIWASSE AND BELLA VISTA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3623 9409 3621 9414 3622 9433 3615 9433
      3614 9437 3610 9441 3611 9455 3640 9459
      3644 9462 3650 9461 3649 9409
TIME...MOT...LOC 1021Z 247DEG 31KT 3639 9457 3615 9472