Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 080107
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
807 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

OKC037-117-080215-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080408T0215Z/
CREEK OK-PAWNEE OK-
807 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN CREEK COUNTIES...

AT 805 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE 
HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF  
OILTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...DRUMRIGHT...
OILTON...JENNINGS...SILVER CITY...TERLTON...MANNFORD AND WESTPORT.

THIS STORM IS LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3622 9631 3599 9630 3597 9663 3615 9664
      3616 9681 3618 9683 3620 9683 3624 9633
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 262DEG 23KT 3608 9665

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 080124
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
824 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

OKC037-117-080215-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080408T0215Z/
CREEK OK-PAWNEE OK-
824 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN CREEK COUNTIES...

AT 821 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OILTON...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SILVER CITY...
TERLTON...MANNFORD AND WESTPORT.

THIS STORM IS LIKELY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3622 9631 3599 9630 3597 9663 3615 9664
      3616 9673 3619 9673 3620 9674 3624 9633
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 262DEG 23KT 3609 9654

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 080146
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
846 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

OKC037-117-080215-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080408T0215Z/
CREEK OK-PAWNEE OK-
846 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR PAWNEE AND NORTHERN CREEK COUNTIES...

AT 843 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MANNFORD...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MANNFORD AND 
WESTPORT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM THAT HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE 
HAIL. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY 
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3623 9633 3622 9631 3599 9630 3598 9645
      3611 9654 3620 9660 3624 9633
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 262DEG 23KT 3611 9637

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 080202
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

OKC117-080212-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080408T0215Z/
PAWNEE OK-
902 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PAWNEE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

LAT...LON 3616 9632 3614 9631 3599 9630 3606 9637
      3611 9638 3618 9637 3618 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 262DEG 23KT 3611 9631

$$

OKC037-080215-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080408T0215Z/
CREEK OK-
902 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CREEK COUNTY...

AT 900 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MANNFORD...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

.

LAT...LON 3616 9632 3614 9631 3599 9630 3606 9637
      3611 9638 3618 9637 3618 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 262DEG 23KT 3611 9631

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 080211
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

OKC037-080220-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-080408T0215Z/
CREEK OK-
910 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CREEK COUNTY 
EXPIRES AT 915 PM CDT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST CREEK 
COUNTY UNTIL 1015 PM CDT.

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 CDT.

LAT...LON 3616 9632 3614 9631 3599 9630 3606 9637
      3611 9638 3618 9637 3618 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 262DEG 23KT 3612 9625

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
745 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170 AND
ADD SEVERE TO ZONE WORDING. WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT SWO TO
NEAR MKO THIS EVENING. WHAT APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED SUPERCELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND HAVE PRODUCED 1.5 IN CH
HAIL IN PAYNE COUNTY. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WAA
STRENGTHENS. COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A SFC
BASED STORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SRH...
THERE REMAINS AT LEAST SMALL TORNADO THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
TULSA AREA. ELSEWHERE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AND WILL BE DEALING MAINLY WITH ELEVATED
HAIL PRODUCERS.

HAVE LEFT POP CONFIGURATION AS IS WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATED
NORTH OF THE EXPECTED WARM FRONTAL POSITION LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER AT THIS TIME WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD AND DEVELOP NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH POPS
WARRANTED IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING IN OUR FORECAST AREA
BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL.
THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS VERY MINIMAL THIS FAR EAST DUE TO THE
LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LEADING TO THE STORMS BECOMING
MORE ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.

SHADED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE FASTER ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY BY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL HANG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN ITS VICINITY.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SOME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE SEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN FOR A TIME LATER THURSDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY THURSAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS REDEVELOP ALONG
A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ECMWF IS FAIRLY QUICK MOVING THE DRY AIR IN WITH THE
CANADIAN BEING A BIT SLOWER. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION
VERIFIES...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING IN THE EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST FOR
A COUPLE DAYS FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OR A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE/ECMWF THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  63  45  62 /  80  60  10  60
FSM   59  72  53  69 /  30  70  40  60
MLC   62  68  51  69 /  40  50  30  60
BVO   48  61  42  62 /  90  70   0  50
FYV   56  66  46  65 /  40  80  20  30
BYV   56  66  45  64 /  30  80  30  20
MKO   59  65  48  66 /  60  70  20  60
MIO   52  61  43  64 /  80  90  10  20
F10   61  64  48  65 /  60  60  10  60
HHW   62  72  55  71 /  30  40  70  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
735 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-

735 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...8 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...8 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...9 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...9 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY
THIS EVENING...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST...AND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF I-44 BY LATE THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF
AREA OF THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER 800 PM. SHEAR AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED DURING THE EVENING AND THUS
ONLY A SMALL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS...MAINLY WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 75.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS FARTHER EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...IF THERE ARE NOT STORMS AROUND SUNRISE...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  ENOUGH
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A DRY LINE
AND COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO
THE WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
POSSIBLE SPOTTER ACTIVATION FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PARTICULAR
ATTENTION SHOULD BE PAID TO THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.