Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
329 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS...AND THIS FORCING REGIME IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. SURFACE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
WILL WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARD TODAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC WARM
SECTOR ENVELOPING THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT WARMING HOWEVER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARER NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS AND A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS STORMS BY THIS EVENING. THESE
BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER ANY LONG TRACK STORMS MAY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 THIS EVENING.

THE LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VOLATILE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTIES
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE IMPACT OF EARLY DAY
CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDINESS AND THE RESULTANT IMPACTS ON
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. WHILE A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT IN SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE...THE DEGREE OF SYNOPTIC FORCING AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES MAY WELL OFFSET THIS IMPACT WITHIN ANY
SUSTAINED STORM UPDRAFT. THIS YIELDS A SCENARIO OF SUSTAINABLE
UPDRAFTS WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT IS FAVORABLY
ORIENTATED TO SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO MAINTAIN A CELLULAR MODE. THE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS...WHICH GIVEN THE LACK OF BACKING
FLOW...WOULD PLACE THE ORIGINATION ZONE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE
RESULTANT FORECAST IS SCATTERED SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING BY MID
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST THAN THE DRYLINE...AND PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...AS A SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVERTAKES ANY PRE-FRONTAL
STORMS. A RESPONSE TO SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING
STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT SYSTEM...HAVE INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THURSDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY THE WEEKEND AS VARIOUS LONG RANGE MODEL OUTPUT BECOMES
OUT OF PHASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  65  75  45 /  20  30  80  40
FSM   71  62  72  50 /  60  20  90  80
MLC   73  66  74  49 /  30  20  80  50
BVO   70  63  76  42 /  20  40  80  20
FYV   68  60  69  47 /  60  30  90  80
BYV   67  61  70  44 /  70  30  90  80
MKO   72  65  74  46 /  30  20  80  60
MIO   69  63  73  43 /  30  40  90  60
F10   73  65  74  46 /  30  20  80  50
HHW   74  66  73  58 /  50  20  80  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
441 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
440 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

...A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
   SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE HIGHER MONDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  SCATTERED AREAS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID OR LATE EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE...AND THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SETTLING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH A RANGE OF WEATHER POSSIBILITIES.

A FEW ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.   MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS ON
SUNDAY  WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSITION OF THE DRY
LINE TO OUR WEST AND A FRONT TO OUR NORTH.  MOST OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..A FEW
SEVERE STORMS COULD MOVE OFF OF THE DRY LINE SUNDAY EVENING...
POSSIBLY REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MOST VULNERABLE AREA WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 ACROSS
PAWNEE...OSAGE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

ON MONDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LINE
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGING
WEATHER SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION AND FORECASTS AS THIS LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
DEVELOPS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
138 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

OKZ076-300700-
LE FLORE OK-
138 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE

AT 138 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LE
FLORE COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH..

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3481 9445 3454 9446 3453 9455 3468 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 237DEG 31KT 3465 9451

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
145 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

ARZ002-300730-
CARROLL AR-
145 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CARROLL

AT 145 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
WEST OF METALTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAK GROVE...PLEASANT
RIDGE...DENVER...BERRYVILLE...GREEN FOREST...METALTON...CONNOR...
CABANAL...RULE...COIN...URBANETTE AND GRANDVIEW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3649 9330 3637 9327 3634 9329 3616 9356
      3620 9361 3626 9361 3630 9366 3631 9376
      3650 9364 3650 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 221DEG 35KT 3625 9364

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
230 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

ARZ011-020-300800-
FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-
230 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN MADISON

AT 230 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
REDDING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PARADISE...TAFT...RED STAR...
WEATHERS...MOUNTAIN TOP...BARNES...TURNERS BEND...CASS...REDDING...
SAINT PAUL...PETTIGREW...DUTTON AND BOSTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3600 9345 3595 9345 3588 9350 3577 9350
      3575 9353 3576 9366 3562 9368 3557 9380
      3573 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 0730Z 242DEG 31KT 3570 9376

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

ARZ001-OKZ063-300915-
BENTON AR-DELAWARE OK-
335 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN BENTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN DELAWARE

AT 335 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CHEROKEE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MILLER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...MAYSVILLE...GRAVETTE...CHEROKEE CITY...DECATUR...
HIWASSE AND BELLA VISTA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3640 9424 3622 9459 3637 9474 3649 9453
      3649 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0835Z 232DEG 36KT 3631 9456

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

OKZ076-301030-
LE FLORE OK-
450 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN LE FLORE

AT 450 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
WEST OF OCTAVIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OCTAVIA...BIG CEDAR AND
MUSE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3455 9494 3464 9493 3487 9443 3452 9446
      3451 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 0950Z 245DEG 34KT 3457 9483