Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
943 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THUS FAR..PRECIP NOT DEVELOPING AS PLANNED.
GIVEN MOIST H850 FLOW AND SOUTHERN BOUNDARY
WILL NOT GIVE UP ON PRECIP.  HOWEVER...WILL
LOWER POPS A CATEGORY..AND CUT QPF AMOUNTS.
ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURE COUPLE DEGREES
SINCE CURRENT TEMPS NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

VOLATILE SEVERE ON THE DOORSTEP LATE SUNDAY...
MORE IMPRESSIVE SEVERE PARAMETERS COALESCING
MONDAY.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE THREAT
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM...LOW
LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
LIMITED LARGE HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE
STRONGER CELLS.

ELEVATED MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH WARM FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DURING THE
DAY. ALTHOUGH POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIMITED CIN OVER AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR...NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM MAY
KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEVERE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA MAY PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP/MOVE INTO
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR
PROFILES.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
MONDAY AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS/JET STREAK SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXACT TIMING OF
SURFACE FEATURES AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE MORNING PRECIP/CLOUDS HAVE
ON SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AS DRY LINE PUSHES INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE
WEATHER IS LIKELY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE/COLD
FRONT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT ALONG
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS BOTH GFS/NAM MODELS HINT THAT THE MAIN
CONVECTION MAY TRY TO SHIFT EAST BY THAT TIME WITH THE STRONGER
FORCING/DYNAMICS...STAY TUNED.

STAYED CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  75  65  74 /  40  30  50  80
FSM   51  76  60  74 /  70  50  20  80
MLC   54  76  66  75 /  40  30  20  80
BVO   50  75  62  75 /  20  30  60  80
FYV   50  72  60  71 /  70  60  30  80
BYV   46  72  59  70 /  70  70  30  80
MKO   50  75  62  74 /  60  40  30  80
MIO   47  74  63  72 /  50  40  50  80
F10   52  75  64  75 /  40  30  30  80
HHW   54  76  65  75 /  40  30  20  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
441 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
440 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

...A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
   SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE HIGHER MONDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  SCATTERED AREAS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID OR LATE EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE...AND THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY.

SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SETTLING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH A RANGE OF WEATHER POSSIBILITIES.

A FEW ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.   MORE SIGNIFICANT STORMS ON
SUNDAY  WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSITION OF THE DRY
LINE TO OUR WEST AND A FRONT TO OUR NORTH.  MOST OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER..A FEW
SEVERE STORMS COULD MOVE OFF OF THE DRY LINE SUNDAY EVENING...
POSSIBLY REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MOST VULNERABLE AREA WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 ACROSS
PAWNEE...OSAGE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

ON MONDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE PLAINS...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS OUR REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LINE
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGING
WEATHER SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION AND FORECASTS AS THIS LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
DEVELOPS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

OKZ070-071-300630-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
100 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MUSKOGEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH

AT 100 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
RENTIESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHECOTAH...RENTIESVILLE...
OKTAHA...KEEFETON...SUMMIT...BRAGGS AND FORT GIBSON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3582 9524 3581 9513 3562 9513 3542 9548
      3556 9562
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 234DEG 33KT 3555 9545

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
106 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

ARZ019-020-300630-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-
106 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN FRANKLIN

AT 106 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTH OF FIGURE FIVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CONCORD...PINEY...
PLEASANT HILL...PARADISE...TAFT...BIDVILLE...MULBERRY...TONEY...
LONELM...CRAVENS...WATALULA...JETHRO...MOUNTAIN TOP...FERN...
BARNES...TURNERS BEND...CASS...REDDING...MOUNTAINBURG...ALMA...
CEDARVILLE...CHESTER...KIBLER...SHIBLEY...FURRY...DYER...FIGURE
FIVE...RUDY...LOCKE AND MOUNT GAYLER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3561 9370 3536 9431 3540 9435 3543 9434
      3545 9437 3545 9441 3550 9447 3575 9417
      3576 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0606Z 237DEG 32KT 3546 9436

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
138 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

OKZ076-300700-
LE FLORE OK-
138 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE

AT 138 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LE
FLORE COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH..

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3481 9445 3454 9446 3453 9455 3468 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 237DEG 31KT 3465 9451

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
145 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

ARZ002-300730-
CARROLL AR-
145 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CARROLL

AT 145 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
WEST OF METALTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OAK GROVE...PLEASANT
RIDGE...DENVER...BERRYVILLE...GREEN FOREST...METALTON...CONNOR...
CABANAL...RULE...COIN...URBANETTE AND GRANDVIEW.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3649 9330 3637 9327 3634 9329 3616 9356
      3620 9361 3626 9361 3630 9366 3631 9376
      3650 9364 3650 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 221DEG 35KT 3625 9364