Severe Thunderstorm Warning 406, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 131017
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
517 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

OKC105-147-131100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0406.000000T0000Z-080613T1100Z/
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
517 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT 
FOR WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES...

AT 508 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF DELAWARE...MOVING EAST AT 54
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...DELAWARE AND
NOWATA.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3683 9545 3676 9545 3675 9544 3673 9545
      3672 9544 3662 9544 3662 9545 3668 9594
      3686 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1017Z 280DEG 47KT 3674 9568

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 131030
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
530 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

OKC105-147-131100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0406.000000T0000Z-080613T1100Z/
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
530 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT 
FOR WASHINGTON AND NOWATA COUNTIES...

AT 525 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NOWATA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A
STRONG BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3683 9545 3676 9545 3675 9544 3673 9545
      3672 9544 3662 9544 3662 9545 3668 9594
      3686 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1030Z 280DEG 47KT 3671 9547

$$

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 131051
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

OKC105-147-131101-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0406.000000T0000Z-080613T1100Z/
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
551 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN NOWATA
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 600 AM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3683 9545 3676 9545 3675 9544 3673 9545
      3672 9544 3662 9544 3662 9545 3668 9594
      3686 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 1051Z 280DEG 47KT 3666 9513

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
250 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WATCH #518 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA UNTIL 09Z.
HOWEVER CURRENT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STAY NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER...WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE
APPROACHED THE AREA AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHORT LIVED
CELLS..THESE BOUNDARIES HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE NEW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THAT SAID...ANY COLD POOL PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. MODELS WANT
TO PUSH SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FA TODAY...WHICH WILL
SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PENDING EVOLUTION
OF MORNING CONVECTION... IT WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL
WHETHER TRUE FRONT OR CONVECTIVE DRIVEN/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE
THE FOCUS...OR PLACEMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. EITHER WAY...THE
PLAN IS TO SHIFT HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW BECOMES BETTER DEFINED...ALONG WITH
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW AND A LURKING OR ADVANCING SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ALL ARE INDICATORS OF POTENTIAL MCSS THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA
FOR SEVERAL LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS OF NEXT WEEK PER
00Z ECMWF. CHANCE POPS FOR MOST IF NOT ALL PERIODS FROM MONDAY ON
LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. ALSO...WILL LIKELY SIDE CLOSE TO MOS
AS AREAS OF RAIN COOLED AIR/DEBRIS CLOUD COVER...AND PLACEMENT OF
BOUNDARIES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  65  90  71 /  50  10   0  10
FSM   89  68  91  69 /  50  40  10  10
MLC   88  67  90  69 /  50  30   0  10
BVO   82  59  90  67 /  60   0   0  10
FYV   82  62  85  63 /  50  40   0  10
BYV   83  61  85  64 /  60  40  10  10
MKO   85  66  88  67 /  40  30   0  10
MIO   81  59  88  66 /  60  10   0  10
F10   86  67  90  69 /  40  20   0  10
HHW   89  70  92  71 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....23