River Flood Warning 106, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
221 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT... WHICH HAS SAGGED SOUTHWARD AND LIES GENERALLY ALONG A LINE
FROM NORMAN... TO OKMULGEE... TO SILOAM SPRINGS. VERY WARM...
MOIST... AND UNSTABLE AIR LIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE ONGOING BY THE FIRST PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE AREA
WITH A HOT AND DRY WEEKEND. THE HEAT WILL EASE GOING INTO MONDAY.
FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
MILD... WITH BOTH MINIMUMS AND MAXIMUMS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE FOR THE UPPER
HIGH TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO SITUATE EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR MCS ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA... MOST LIKELY DURING THE LATE EVENING THROUGH MORNING HOURS.
THUS... AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
FORECAST FOR EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  91  72  92 /  50   0  10  20
FSM   69  92  69  94 /  60   0  10  10
MLC   71  91  72  93 /  40   0  10  10
BVO   60  89  68  92 /  40   0  10  20
FYV   64  86  63  88 /  60   0  10  10
BYV   65  86  65  88 /  70   0  10  10
MKO   67  89  70  90 /  60   0  10  10
MIO   59  91  69  89 /  40   0  10  20
F10   68  89  71  92 /  50   0  10  10
HHW   75  93  72  92 /  50   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....06

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
113 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

OKZ055>058-131915-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-OTTAWA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
113 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CRAIG...NORTHERN OTTAWA...SOUTHERN NOWATA AND
     WASHINGTON

AT 113 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES
WEST OF NOWATA...MOVING EAST AT 49 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...MIAMI...
COMMERCE...OTTAWA...QUAPAW...CARDIN...PICHER...CENTRALIA...HOLLOW...
PYRAMID CORNERS...BLUEJACKET...CENTRAILIA AND WELCH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3687 9466 3660 9579 3677 9586 3700 9516
      3700 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 250DEG 43KT 3672 9572

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
211 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

OKZ056>058-132015-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-OTTAWA OK-
211 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL CRAIG...OTTAWA AND SOUTHEASTERN NOWATA

AT 211 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PYRAMID CORNERS TO 21 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CENTRALIA...MOVING EAST AT 31 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...
AFTON...FAIRLAND...NARCISSA...WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW...
CENTRALIA...PYRAMID CORNERS...BLUEJACKET...CENTRAILIA AND WELCH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3699 9461 3669 9462 3668 9487 3668 9500
      3667 9500 3662 9567 3679 9552 3700 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 258DEG 27KT 3677 9516 3662 9560

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

OKZ054-055-060-061-132015-
OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
249 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN ROGERS...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND
     NORTHERN TULSA

AT 249 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SKIATOOK...MOVING EAST AT 28 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...OOLOGAH...
SKIATOOK...COLLINSVILLE AND VERA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3651 9570 3638 9562 3630 9605 3639 9613
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 251DEG 24KT 3635 9605

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