Severe Thunderstorm Warning 400, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 090154 RRA
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
854 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

OKC147-090204-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0400.000000T0000Z-080609T0200Z/
WASHINGTON OK-
854 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY EXPIRES AT
900 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM.

LAT...LON 3698 9580 3695 9580 3695 9581 3692 9582
      3677 9581 3665 9583 3667 9600 3683 9601
      3687 9600 3699 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 276DEG 34KT 3696 9584 3683 9600
          3674 9627

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
821 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ARE APPROACHING AREA A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS AND TO ADD AREAL COVERAGE WORDING SO
THOSE COUNTIES IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WOULD HAVE POPS
AND WEATHER REFLECTIVE OF THE RISK.  EXPECT THE EVENT TO SHIFT
FROM A SEVERE THREAT TO A FLASH FLOOD RISK OVERNIGH.  WILL LEAVE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND GUSTS HAVE REMAINED BELOW 40
MPH AND THEREFORE HAVE CANCELED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD
BE NEAR TULSA BY 12Z. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY AND WITH INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR COULD HAVE A FEW SEVERE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...HOWEVER COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WITH A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES IS
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST 18Z NAM...THESE TOTALS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED WHEN
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY EVENING WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. AGAIN STAYED FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF DURING THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  73  60  86 /  70  90  20  10
FSM   74  82  63  86 /  10  90  60  10
MLC   74  78  63  86 /  20  90  50  10
BVO   65  75  55  85 /  90  90  20  10
FYV   71  76  57  82 /  20  90  60  10
BYV   71  76  57  82 /  20  90  60  10
MKO   73  74  60  85 /  30  90  40  10
MIO   67  74  56  84 /  70  90  30  10
F10   72  72  60  85 /  30  90  40  10
HHW   75  84  66  87 /  10  70  60  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
814 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
802 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NORTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE THIS EVENING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE THIS EVENING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS FORMED ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE PROGRESSING EAST TOWARD NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.  THERE WILL BE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARILY ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE
44 THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THE THUNDERSTORM
EVENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM A SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.  HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL
...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING WITH HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN RISK.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
HEAVY RAIN AGAIN WILL BE A BIGGER RISK.  RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.  A FEW PLACES MAY SEE 5 INCHES OF RAIN. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA MONDAY EVENING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.