River Flood Warning 17, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1030 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.UPDATE...
SYNOPTIC FLOOD EVENT WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM CHOCTAW COUNTY IN FAR SE OK NEWD
INTO SRN PORTIONS OF SEBASTIAN AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES IN WRN AR. TREMENDOUS MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THIS
BOUNDARY (60KT H85-H7 JET)...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER MUCH OF ERN OK. BEST
AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NRN TX...AND EXPECT THE
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO SHIFT IN FAR ERN OK AND
WRN AR LATER TODAY.

RECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH WILL AFFECT THE FAR
SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...NEAREST THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  42  62  40 / 100  80  20   0
FSM   61  41  60  33 / 100 100  50   0
MLC   56  41  61  38 / 100 100  20   0
BVO   51  40  62  35 / 100  50  10   0
FYV   57  38  57  29 / 100 100  40   0
BYV   57  38  56  29 / 100 100  60   0
MKO   51  42  61  37 / 100  90  20   0
MIO   50  39  58  36 / 100  60  20   0
F10   51  42  61  38 / 100  90  20   0
HHW   69  42  61  35 / 100 100  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
130 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA GENERALLY EAST OF A HUGO TO
        POTEAU LINE.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT
OF STRONG WINDS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON AS STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS SPREAD NORTH INTO
THIS AREA.

A LARGE SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS RECEIVING OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OCCURRING IN A LARGE AREA OF ATMOSPHERIC LIFT...MAINLY
NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT LOCATED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS INTO NORTH
TEXAS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.

ROAD FLOODING ALONG WITH MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL OCCUR DUE TO
THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A PERIOD OF QUITE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND...WITH A LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
118 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VAN BUREN               35.44N 94.35W
03/18/2008                   CRAWFORD           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEVE HOUSE RD JUST OUTSIDE VAN BUREN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER...HAMMER RD OFF HWY 162 SOUTH OF ALMA ALSO CLOSED.

1245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ALPENA                  36.29N 93.29W
03/18/2008                   CARROLL            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER COUNTY ROADS NEAR ALPENA AND HOUGH.

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HUNTSVILLE              36.09N 93.74W
03/18/2008                   MADISON            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING OCCURRING ON MOST SECONDARY RDS THROUGHOUT
            COUNTY AND FLOODING ON SOME PRIMARY ROADS AND HIGHWAYS.
            HOWEVER NO PRIMARY ROADS CLOSED AT THIS TIME.

&&

NMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WILBURTON               34.92N 95.31W
03/18/2008                   LATIMER            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 270 EAST OF WILBURTON HAS WATER OVER THE ROAD.
            SEVERAL AREAS THROUGHOUT COUNTY WITH PRIMARILY SECONDARY
            ROAD FLOODING.

&&

NMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
134 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KEOTA                   35.26N 94.92W
03/18/2008                   HASKELL            OK   NEWSPAPER

            STATE HWY 9 EAST OF KEOTA HAS WATER OVER ROAD.

&&

NMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
137 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 AM     TSTM WND GST     CHARLESTON              35.30N 94.04W
03/18/2008  M65.00 MPH       FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
157 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TURNERS BEND            35.67N 93.83W
03/18/2008                   FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY 23 UNDER WATER DUE TO MULBERRY RIVER.

&&

NMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
242 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE RATTAN             34.22N 95.39W
03/18/2008                   PUSHMATAHA         OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN NEAR RATTAN AND CLOUDY. ONE TREE FELL ONTO AND
            DAMAGED A TRUCK.

&&

NMM