River Flood Warning 11, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
424 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS NOW UNDERWAY WITH MUCH
MORE TO COME. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
OVER BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 44. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT
THOUGH FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OVER 5 INCHES. IF THE CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44 WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY NOT LINGER BEYOND TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GO NOWHERE FAST TODAY WITH NEAR STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FALLING TEMPERATURES IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. SKIES WILL BECOME
SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WITH A DECENT WARMUP EXPECTED.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND SO WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED SOME KIND OF BLEND BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND UKMET
FOR TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH MAXIMUMS TODAY BASED
PRIMARILY ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED 13Z TEMPERATURES.
ONLY PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY SEE A MINOR RECOVERY LATER
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   50  42  62  40 / 100  80  20   0
FSM   60  41  60  33 / 100 100  50   0
MLC   52  41  61  38 / 100 100  20   0
BVO   51  40  62  35 /  90  50  10   0
FYV   54  38  57  29 / 100 100  40   0
BYV   53  38  56  29 / 100 100  60   0
MKO   51  42  61  37 / 100  90  20   0
MIO   50  39  58  36 / 100  60  20   0
F10   51  42  61  38 / 100  90  20   0
HHW   64  42  61  35 / 100 100  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-
     OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-
     OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST  OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE AN UPPER SYSTEM WAS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING.  HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED WITH
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN PLACES. WHILE THERE
IS SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS MORNING...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING.  THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO TONIGHT AS WILL THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE RAIN WILL BE OVER OR TAPERING OFF.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 N ASHLAND             34.87N 96.07W
03/18/2008  M64 MPH          PITTSBURG          OK   MESONET

&&

MEP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

ARZ001-010-OKZ063-068>070-072-180930-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH
OK-WASHINGTON AR-
405 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHWESTERN BENTON

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN MUSKOGEE...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHWESTERN
     SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND ADAIR

AT 405 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM MAYSVILLE TO ELDON TO 4 MILES EAST OF WARNER...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...PUMPKIN CENTER...STILWELL...BUNCH...BARON...
CHRISTIE...PROCTOR...WESTVILLE...BALLARD...WATTS...OAKS...KANSAS...
COLCORD...WEST SILOAM SPRINGS...SALLISAW...MC KEY...VIAN...GORE...
BRUSHY...MARBLE CITY...BOX...TAHLEQUAH...COOKSON...ELDON...SCRAPER...
WARNER...BRAGGS...WEBBERS FALLS...ROCKY COMFORT...FAIRMOUNT...WALNUT
GROVE...HARMON...SILOAM SPRINGS...GENTRY...MAYSVILLE...LAKE
FRANCIS...GALLITIN...HEALING SPRINGS...SPRINGTOWN...HIGHFILL...
CHEROKEE CITY...DECATUR...FAYETTEVILLE...LINCOLN...PRAIRIE GROVE...
FARMINGTON...MORROW...CLYDE...CANEHILL...SUMMERS...RHEA...VINEY
GROVE...CINCINNATI...WEDINGTON...SAVOY...WHEELER...JOHNSON...
TONTITOWN...ELM SPRINGS AND MARIETTA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3611 9410 3546 9478 3546 9535 3547 9535
      3651 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 285DEG 36KT 3639 9457 3593 9480
          3550 9519

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
426 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

ARZ001-010-019-OKZ069-181015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CRAWFORD AR-WASHINGTON AR-
426 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WASHINGTON...NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND BENTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR

AT 426 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF SULPHUR SPRINGS TO 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE FRANCIS TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STILWELL...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...STILWELL...BUNCH...BARON...CHRISTIE...WESTVILLE...
BALLARD...WATTS...WALNUT HILL...HICKS...ROCKY COMFORT...FAIRMOUNT...
SHADY GROVE...MILLER...ODELL...WALNUT GROVE...TUTTLE...HILL TOP...
HARMON...BENTONVILLE...SILOAM SPRINGS...ROGERS...SULPHUR SPRINGS...
LOWELL...GENTRY...GRAVETTE...PEA RIDGE...LAKE FRANCIS...GALLITIN...
HEALING SPRINGS...SPRINGTOWN...HIGHFILL...CAVE SPRINGS...MONTE NE...
VAUGHN...LARUE...DECATUR...CENTERTON...AVOCA...HIWASSE...BELLA
VISTA...GARFIELD...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...WINSLOW...WEST FORK...
LINCOLN...PRAIRIE GROVE...ELKINS...FARMINGTON...BLACKBURN...HOGEYE...
STRICKLER...MORROW...BRENTWOOD...WOOLSEY...WYOLA...CLYDE...ARNETT...
CANEHILL...SULPHUR CITY...SUMMERS...BLACK OAK...GREENLAND...RHEA...
VINEY GROVE...CINCINNATI...WEDINGTON...SAVOY...GOSHEN...WHEELER...
JOHNSON...SONORA...TONTITOWN...ELM SPRINGS...CHESTER...LEE CREEK...
LOCKE...MOUNT GAYLER...MARIETTA AND OAK GROVE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3649 9393 3567 9400 3568 9478 3617 9461
      3617 9456 3627 9458 3651 9450 3650 9398
      3651 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 270DEG 42KT 3651 9433 3611 9443
          3578 9463

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
503 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-181100-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
503 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     WASHINGTON...CARROLL...EASTERN BENTON AND MADISON

AT 503 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES WEST OF BUSCH TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MORROW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...GEORGETOWN...WALNUT HILL...
HICKS...OAK GROVE...HARMONY...OAK HILL...BLAND...SHADY GROVE...WALNUT
GROVE...RED STAR...WEATHERS...TUTTLE...MAYFIELD...HILL TOP...PLEASANT
RIDGE...DENVER...ROGERS...LOWELL...GATEWAY...WAR EAGLE...MONTE NE...
LOOKOUT...LARUE...GARFIELD...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...OSAGE...
GREEN FOREST...DRYFORK...DELMAR...METALTON...RUDD...CONNOR...
CARROLLTON...CABANAL...RULE...COIN...BEAVER LAKE...URBANETTE...
GRANDVIEW...BUSCH...BEAVER...HUNTSVILLE...AURORA...WESLEY...
KINGSTON...HINDSVILLE...FORUM...BEST...DELANEY...CROSSES...WITTER...
JAPTON...MARBLE...ALABAM...CLIFTY...ROCKHOUSE...FAYETTEVILLE...
SPRINGDALE...WEST FORK...PRAIRIE GROVE...ELKINS...FARMINGTON...
HOGEYE...STRICKLER...MORROW...BRENTWOOD...WOOLSEY...WYOLA...CLYDE...
ARNETT...CANEHILL...DURHAM...SULPHUR CITY...BLACK OAK...GREENLAND...
VINEY GROVE...GOSHEN...WHEELER...JOHNSON AND SONORA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3648 9328 3613 9327 3611 9330 3611 9345
      3607 9342 3597 9342 3594 9347 3586 9350
      3581 9449 3650 9399 3650 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1003Z 247DEG 49KT 3648 9382 3582 9445

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
726 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

OKZ066-070-071-073-181330-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
726 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 830 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL MUSKOGEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     MCINTOSH AND NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG

AT 726 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTH OF SCIPIO...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE...CENTRAL MUSKOGEE...
MCINTOSH AND NORTHWESTERN PITTSBURG COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM AND OTHER STRONG STORMS THROUGH 830 AM CDT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3573 9532 3486 9582 3498 9606 3514 9603
      3516 9600 3527 9600 3530 9597 3538 9597
      3539 9599 3571 9594
TIME...MOT...LOC 1226Z 202DEG 46KT 3504 9595