River Flood Warning 125, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
615 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
TROPICAL REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND LIGHT FOG.
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR AND
IFR CATEGORIES CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ058-OKZ063-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
745 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
745 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

...REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH
   TONIGHT...

...3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
                                ARKANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
THE TROPICAL REMNANTS OF GUSTAV...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN A MORE NORTH NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL  WRAP AROUND THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...THUS RESULTING IN RAINY PERIODS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
THE TRACK OF THE CIRCULATION DICTATES FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN MORE FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED
RAINFALL...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE...OKCFFATSA...FOR DETAILS.

ADDITIONALLY...WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST TODAY. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SEE...OKCNPWTSA...FOR DETAILS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE...CONSIDERABLY DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING OVER THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS OVER THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND MAY
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR. A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.