Flash Flood Warning 117, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WGUS74 KTSA 031413
FFSTSA

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
913 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

ARC015-087-031645-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0117.000000T0000Z-080903T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-
913 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN MADISON AND CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 909 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVER ALL OF NORTHERN MADISON AND 
CARROLL COUNTIES.  THE BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WERE MOVING NORTHWEST 
AT 10 MPH. RADAR INDICATES THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY 
FALLEN WITHIN THE LAST 3 HOURS. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE 
POSSIBLE THROUGH 1145 AM CDT.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN
INCLUDE CLIFTY...BEAVER...GRANDVIEW...URBANETTE...RULE...
CARROLLTON...RUDD...GREEN FOREST...EUREKA SPRINGS...BERRYVILLE...OAK
GROVE AND ALPENA.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES TWO FEET OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 3612 9329 3612 9346 3609 9346 3608 9343
      3598 9344 3602 9392 3622 9389 3624 9386
      3650 9386 3650 9330 3649 9329 3613 9328

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
351 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS OF GUSTAV. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH TODAY AND THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH
MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAINFALL WITH EVENT SO
FAR AND EVEN WITH THE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED
TODAY/THIS EVENING...SHOULD NOT POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
THREAT. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED HOWEVER TO MAKE
SURE NO HEAVIER RAIN BANDS DEVELOP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME.
BEAUTIFUL FALL LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.
LATEST 06Z NAM SHOWS 50H SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO AREA SATURDAY
MORNING WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS MAY PUSH SECONDARY COOL
FRONT INTO AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. CONCERNING THE EXTENDED...STAYED CLOSE TO MEX
GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  62  78  59 /  90  40  10  10
FSM   74  68  79  62 / 100  70  20  10
MLC   74  63  81  59 /  90  30  10  10
BVO   70  60  77  56 /  90  40  10  10
FYV   72  66  74  57 / 100  80  30  10
BYV   73  66  74  57 / 100 100  40  10
MKO   73  63  79  58 / 100  50  10  10
MIO   71  64  75  57 / 100  80  20  10
F10   73  63  80  59 /  90  40  10  10
HHW   77  65  83  63 /  90  30  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ058-OKZ063-OKZ068-
     OKZ069-OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
515 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
514 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

...REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...

...3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...TODAY.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THE TROPICAL REMNANTS OF GUSTAV...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN A MORE NORTH NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE REGION.
THE TRACK OF THE CIRCULATION DICTATES FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN MORE FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED
RAINFALL...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEE...OKCFFATSA...FOR DETAILS.

ADDITIONALLY...WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH NORTHEAST TODAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ITS WAKE...CONSIDERABLY DRIER
AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING OVER THE AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS OVER THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND MAY
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER AIR. A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.