Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 021523
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1021 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

KSC061-161-197-021545-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-080602T1545Z/
RILEY-GEARY-WABAUNSEE-
1021 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT
FOR WABAUNSEE...EASTERN GEARY AND RILEY COUNTIES...

AT 1018 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE 
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE.  A SECOND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
WAS ONCE AGAIN MOVING INTO EASTERN RILEY AND EASTERN GEARY 
COUNTIES.  THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS.  BOTH OF THESE STORMS 
ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 31 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANHATTAN...OGDEN...FORT RILEY...
ALMA...MCFARLAND AND PAXICO.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 304 AND 339.

LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY
MOVE INDOORS NOW...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A BUILDING.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3874 9638 3882 9639 3882 9649 3886 9649
      3887 9655 3906 9674 3927 9666 3921 9654
      3917 9654 3918 9652 3917 9650 3917 9646
      3904 9599
TIME...MOT...LOC 1521Z 286DEG 27KT 3906 9639

$$

CAVANAUGH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
407 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...

COMPLICATED FORECAST AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE TIMING AND
COVERAGE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENT FOR NEARLY EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WAS SEEN IN THE 00Z UPPER AIR
DATA WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET NOT FAR OFF WITH 100KT
250MB SPEEDS FROM CENTRAL UTAH ARCING NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA THEN
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS SHUNTED A
BIT FARTHER EAST BUT OVERALL FLATTENED TROF/RIDGE/TROF PATTERN
PERSISTS ALOFT. VERY WARM TEMPS WERE NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
/700MB TEMP OF 17C AT KABQ/ WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
TO THE SOUTH. SURFACE FRONT IS HARD TO PICK OUT...BUT BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WAS BRINGING 65F DEWPOINTS INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED FARTHER NORTH THIS MORNING
THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS. ELEVATED THICKNESSES AND CORFIDI VECTORS
SUGGEST STRONGER NORTHERN NEBRASKA MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/
CONVECTION WILL ENTER AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO SEE
WESTERN KANSAS CONVECTION SPREAD EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASE SHARPLY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
FORECAST SOUNDING ARE SIMILAR WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ COMING
IN A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...WITH LITTLE CAPPING
SUGGESTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST TO
BRING SOME CONVERGENCE TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP SOME PRECIP MENTION
FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE REASONS. BULK SHEAR WILL BE
RATHER HIGH WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY /AS LONG AS EARLY DAY
CONVECTION ISN/T TOO PERSISTENT/ FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

EML STEADILY INCREASES TONIGHT...WITH 16C 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
COMMONPLACE BY DAWN TUESDAY. BELIEVE ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST BY EVENING...BUT MCS MOVEMENT FORECAST
TECHNIQUES SUGGEST STORMS THAT MAY FIRE AHEAD OF A DECENT WAVE TO
THE  NORTHWEST MAY ENTER THE NORTHERN ZONES AGAIN TONIGHT. EML MAY
KEEP THIS IN CHECK FOR THE LOCAL AREA...BUT SMALL POPS STILL SEEM
JUSTIFIED FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP
KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...PERHAPS
REMAINING OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TO LIKELY BRING EVEN
MIXED LAYER CAPES INTO THE 2500 J/KG RANGE. EML APPEARS TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE WAVE BUT SOME CAPPING WILL LIKELY REMAIN.
WILL INCREASE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN
SLOWER BOUNDARY AND WEAKER CAPPING. ANY CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING...WITH GREATER CONCERN IF IT CAN PERSIST PAST SUNSET
WHEN LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND PUSHES MOISTURE OVER THE WEAK
BOUNDARY. CHANCE POPS WILL BE KEPT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE NEXT WESTERN SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPEN WITH
A BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A
DRYLINE COMING INTO FOCUS OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH ANY STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
OFF EITHER BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING AT LEAST SMALL POPS FOR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT STILL APPEARS TO BRING THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO THE AREA...BUT BETTER CHANCES
MAY HOLD OFF IN EASTERN AREAS UNTIL EVENING WITH EML IN PLACE. SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THESE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. ATTM THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY 12Z NEAR
KMHK AND NEAR 15Z AT KFOE AND KTOP THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 19Z.
ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
504 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-031015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
504 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY..AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HERINGTON TO LYNDON TO GARNETT TONIGHT. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
WASHINGTON TO MINNEAPOLIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY....AND FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN
MANY OF THESE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
943 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     HAIL             11 ESE MANHATTAN        39.11N 96.39W
06/02/2008  E1.00 INCH       RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
945 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 AM     HAIL             5 E MILFORD             39.17N 96.82W
06/02/2008  E1.75 INCH       RILEY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
946 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     HAIL             CLAY CENTER             39.38N 97.12W
06/02/2008  E1.50 INCH       CLAY               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
948 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 AM     HAIL             LEBO                    38.42N 95.85W
06/02/2008  E1.00 INCH       COFFEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
953 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 AM     HAIL             ADMIRE                  38.64N 96.10W
06/02/2008  E1.75 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
955 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 AM     HAIL             MANHATTAN               39.18N 96.57W
06/02/2008  E4.25 INCH       RILEY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOFTBALL HAIL REPORTED JUST EAST OF MANHATTAN ARPT

&&

BYRNE