Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
407 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...

COMPLICATED FORECAST AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTIVE TIMING AND
COVERAGE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE. CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS IS PRESENT FOR NEARLY EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE ALOFT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WAS SEEN IN THE 00Z UPPER AIR
DATA WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET NOT FAR OFF WITH 100KT
250MB SPEEDS FROM CENTRAL UTAH ARCING NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA THEN
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS SHUNTED A
BIT FARTHER EAST BUT OVERALL FLATTENED TROF/RIDGE/TROF PATTERN
PERSISTS ALOFT. VERY WARM TEMPS WERE NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
/700MB TEMP OF 17C AT KABQ/ WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
TO THE SOUTH. SURFACE FRONT IS HARD TO PICK OUT...BUT BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WAS BRINGING 65F DEWPOINTS INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.

NOCTURNAL ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED FARTHER NORTH THIS MORNING
THAN IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS. ELEVATED THICKNESSES AND CORFIDI VECTORS
SUGGEST STRONGER NORTHERN NEBRASKA MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/
CONVECTION WILL ENTER AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY ALSO SEE
WESTERN KANSAS CONVECTION SPREAD EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASE SHARPLY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
FORECAST SOUNDING ARE SIMILAR WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ COMING
IN A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...WITH LITTLE CAPPING
SUGGESTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST TO
BRING SOME CONVERGENCE TO THE REGION. WILL KEEP SOME PRECIP MENTION
FOR ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE REASONS. BULK SHEAR WILL BE
RATHER HIGH WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY /AS LONG AS EARLY DAY
CONVECTION ISN/T TOO PERSISTENT/ FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

EML STEADILY INCREASES TONIGHT...WITH 16C 700MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
COMMONPLACE BY DAWN TUESDAY. BELIEVE ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST BY EVENING...BUT MCS MOVEMENT FORECAST
TECHNIQUES SUGGEST STORMS THAT MAY FIRE AHEAD OF A DECENT WAVE TO
THE  NORTHWEST MAY ENTER THE NORTHERN ZONES AGAIN TONIGHT. EML MAY
KEEP THIS IN CHECK FOR THE LOCAL AREA...BUT SMALL POPS STILL SEEM
JUSTIFIED FOR AT LEAST THE NORTH. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP
KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING MID LEVEL WAVE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...PERHAPS
REMAINING OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TO LIKELY BRING EVEN
MIXED LAYER CAPES INTO THE 2500 J/KG RANGE. EML APPEARS TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE WAVE BUT SOME CAPPING WILL LIKELY REMAIN.
WILL INCREASE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN
SLOWER BOUNDARY AND WEAKER CAPPING. ANY CONVECTION MAY PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING...WITH GREATER CONCERN IF IT CAN PERSIST PAST SUNSET
WHEN LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND PUSHES MOISTURE OVER THE WEAK
BOUNDARY. CHANCE POPS WILL BE KEPT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE NEXT WESTERN SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPEN WITH
A BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A
DRYLINE COMING INTO FOCUS OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE SIGNIFICANT...WITH ANY STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST
OFF EITHER BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING AT LEAST SMALL POPS FOR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT STILL APPEARS TO BRING THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO THE AREA...BUT BETTER CHANCES
MAY HOLD OFF IN EASTERN AREAS UNTIL EVENING WITH EML IN PLACE. SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THESE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE TAF LOCATIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND CIGS. ATTM THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BY 12Z NEAR
KMHK AND NEAR 15Z AT KFOE AND KTOP THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 19Z.
ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WILL NOT INTRODUCE IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
504 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-031015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
504 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY..AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM HERINGTON TO LYNDON TO GARNETT TONIGHT. SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST FOR LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
WASHINGTON TO MINNEAPOLIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY....AND FOR MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN
MANY OF THESE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
914 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 AM     HAIL             5 N COUNCIL GROVE       38.73N 96.49W
06/02/2008  E3.50 INCH       MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
919 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 AM     HAIL             CLAY CENTER             39.38N 97.12W
06/02/2008  E2.50 INCH       CLAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
926 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 SSW JAMESTOWN         39.52N 97.90W
06/02/2008  E60 MPH          CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
927 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 AM     HAIL             CLAY CENTER             39.38N 97.12W
06/02/2008  M3.50 INCH       CLAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
931 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 N GLASCO              39.44N 97.84W
06/02/2008  E60 MPH          CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
943 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     HAIL             11 ESE MANHATTAN        39.11N 96.39W
06/02/2008  E1.00 INCH       RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE