Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS53 KTOP 262130
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
430 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

KSC117-201-262200-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-080626T2200Z/
WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-
430 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL MARSHALL AND EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WATERVILLE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARYSVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 8 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WATERVILLE.

LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY
MOVE INDOORS NOW...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
SAFETY MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OR A BASEMENT AND
AVOID WINDOWS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3994 9667 3971 9653 3966 9684 3983 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 314DEG 7KT 3971 9678

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPTIC SCALE HAS CHANGE LITTLE IN THE LAST DAY OR SO. BROAD UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE WEST WITH UPPER JET WELL NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS JET HAS PUSHED A DECENT UPPER TROF INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES HOWEVER. LOCAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK
AND WESTERLY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW DOWN
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT 700MB TEMPS STILL WERE STRUGGLING TO BREACH 10C.
MULTIPLE MESOSCALE PHENOMENA FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
WERE IN AND NEARBY THE AREA...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG A LINE
NEAR KTOP-KEMP...JUST SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA BORDER...AND AN
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX /MCV/ PUSHING EAST FROM NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. 19Z MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY HAS PUSHED TO THE 2500-3500 J/KG
RANGE WITH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OCCURRING.

SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS CURRENT AND
NEW BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE MCV. HAIL LIKELY THE BIGGEST
CONCERN...WITH COLLAPSING SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS ALSO POSSIBLE. SLOW
MOVING STORMS MAY TRAIN AND BRING A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT AS
WELL. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST AS LEAD
WAVES MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LARGER WAVE.
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM THIS ARE WOULD LIKELY PUSH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AND MAY ENTER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOCAL AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CONCERNS...CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN UPPER TROF STILL ON TRACK TO
ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY...BUT TIMING AND CONSISTENCY OF THE BOUNDARY IS
IN QUESTION AS OUTFLOWS FROM TONIGHT/S CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BRING
THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA AT DIFFERENT RATES THAN THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS CAN HANDLE. AMOUNT OF DAYTIME HEATING IS THUS ALSO
IN QUESTION...BUT KEPT HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE OF EXPECTED
POSSIBILITIES. DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD STILL HAVE
ONLY A SMALL CAP TO OVERCOME AS THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES...WITH LARGER
SCALE LIFT LIKELY ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE WITH
THE INCREASED SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

65

THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE A
DETERMINING FACTOR ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH IS LIKELY TO STILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ATTM.
THE NAM AND THE GFS DIFFER ON TIMING BUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY
CHANGE THE WIND FIELDS ANYWAY. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD IN THE 06Z-12Z SATURDAY TIME
PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND FOCUS
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. ANOTHER CONCERN MAY BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE TRAINING OF STORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL EXCEED 2 INCHES.

DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
OFF BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOL ADVECTION AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY MORNING NEAR 60.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SET UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND
30 KTS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT BECOMES SOUTHWEST. THE
TROUGH PLACEMENT VARIES WITH THE GFS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND WEAKER
THAN THE ECMWF GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WILL ONLY
GO WITH SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF
BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND MOVES THE TROUGH THROUGH WHILE THE GFS
DOES NOT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THEN IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ON THURSDAY. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

53

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TOP/FOE
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MISSOURI CONVECTION MIXES OUT.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND MCV FROM APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUGGESTS SOME POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH JUST WHERE
THE CONVECTION WILL FIRE WILL LIMIT THE HANDLING OF THIS POSSIBILITY
TO A CB FORECAST. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND
45KT OVERNIGHT FOR SOME MODERATE WIND SHEAR...MIXING OUT BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY.

65

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1057 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-271600-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1057 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR. HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN COULD ALSO
OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
205 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

KSZ011-261945-
NEMAHA-
205 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

THROUGH 245 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEMAHA COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BERN AND SABETHA.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

KONOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
243 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     HAIL             6 NW SABETHA            39.96N 95.88W
06/26/2008  E1.00 INCH       NEMAHA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JL

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
323 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

KSZ009-010-262045-
MARSHALL-WASHINGTON-
323 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

THROUGH 345 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 23 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
WATERVILLE...BLUE RAPIDS AND MARYSVILLE.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
351 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

KSZ011-262130-
NEMAHA-
351 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

THROUGH 430 PM CDT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AT 10 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEMAHA COUNTY.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
SENECA...ONEIDA...BERN AND SABETHA.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

KONOP

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
352 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

KSZ009-010-262115-
MARSHALL-WASHINGTON-
352 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

THROUGH 415 PM CDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AT 14 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE OKETO AND MARYSVILLE.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
405 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

KSZ008-262130-
REPUBLIC-
405 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2008

THROUGH 430 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 10 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
BELLEVILLE.

STAY ALERT TO THE WEATHER IN CASE A WARNING IS ISSUED.