Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
409 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT FORECAST TIME WAS AROUND KCNK WITH
MAX PRESSURE FALLS OVER SOUTHWEST IA.  PACIFIC FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST
OF THE CWA BRINGING BEST QUALITY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO MO.
GREATEST ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS OVER NORTHWESTERN MO WITH A
SECONDARY AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA AT THIS
TIME...BREAKS IN THE STRATUS HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE EROSION OF ANY
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WHICH WAS ALLOWING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS MAY
EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE 23 TO 00Z TIMEFRAME AS CONVERGENCE
ALONG TRUE COLD FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALOFT SET UP AT LEAST SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
ROTATE NORTHEAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AFTER SUNSET AS DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING OTHER THAN
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS LACKING.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH BEFORE SUNSET IN THE WATCH AREA TO PRODUCE
SOME ONE INCH HAIL OR 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  AFTER SUNSET WOULD EXPECT
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TO DIMINISH QUICKLY...AND WOULD EXPECT TOP
CWA COUNTIES TO BE REMOVED FROM THE WATCH WELL BEFORE THE EXP TIME
OF 9 PM.

OTHER CONCERNS TONIGHT WERE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
CLIMBING ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.  AT THIS TIME WITH THE BENEFIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING SITES IN EAST CENTRAL KS ARE NOT REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS...SO DO NOT EXPECT AFTER SUNSET WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF
THERMAL MIXING SITES WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS...SO WILL ALLOW THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 22Z.  SAME CONCERNS WITH WINDS OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WITH RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...AND ONCE AGAIN
WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF DAYTIME HEATING...DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
CLIMB ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE NOT ISSUED WIND
ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME.  IF PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TOMORROW...AND SUBSIDENCE IS GREAT
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME SITES IN
NORTH CENTRAL KS MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.  SINCE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY DECISION FOR
TOMORROW UP TO THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE FOR LATEST ANALYSIS.

LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY..AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CWA LATE EVENING...AND IS CLEAR OF THE AREA BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.
CAA THEN REALLY KICKS IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR SNOW WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE LESS THAN 36F. NOT EXPECTING
A HARD FREEZE CONSIDERING OVERNIGHT MIXING AND CLOUD COVER...BUT
TEMPERATURES NEAR 32F ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH NEARLY
NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S.

SAT...ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY SWEEPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW ON SATURDAY...AND REINFORCES BOTH MORE COLD ADVECTION AND
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND LIFT
SEEM TO CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK IT TOO
LATE FOR THE SUN TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPS.

SUN/MON...500 MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY DUE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW AND AHEAD OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE. THIS KEEPS US
AGAIN IN COOLER FLOW BUT WARMER TEMPS OF +6C AT 850MB CREEP ACROSS
THE AREA BY LATE DAY SUNDAY AND SHOULD GET US INTO THE MID 50S BY
LATE DAY. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO HAVE INFLUENCE ON ITS EASTERN SIDE THROUGH MONDAY BUT
SHOULD STILL RAISE A FEW MORE DEGREES NEAR 60 WITH SUN AND SLOW
WARMING TREND.

TUES-THURS...FLATTENING RIDGE BRINGS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND A RETURN TO THE LEE TROF AND WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS. LATEST EC
AND GFS HAVE NEXT UPPER LOW POISED OFF THE WEST COAST PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. END
RESULT WILL BE TEMPERATURES FINALLY NEAR 70 FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM MAY MOVE OVER TOP OR
FOE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
CONVECTION DID NOT INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS AND SIDED WITH
VCTS WORDING AT THIS TIME.  WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND SLOWLY VEER
AROUND TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.  A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES IN
THE 04 TO 05Z TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING AN MVFR DECK BACK
THROUGH TAF SITES.  AT THIS TIME CIGS LOOK TO HOLD AROUND THE 2 KFT
LEVEL...SO HAVE CIGS REMAINING AT THIS LEVEL FROM 04-05Z ON AT THIS
TIME.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS MAY VEER FURTHER
AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...BUT DID NOT ADD A CHANGE GROUP AT
THIS TIME AS CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY
FOR KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

67/CAVANAUGH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
400 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             4 ESE GREELEY           38.34N 95.07W
04/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       ANDERSON           KS   PUBLIC

&&

JB

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