Wind Advisory 7, NWS Topeka, KS

000 
WWUS73 KTOP 102254
NPWTOP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
554 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

KSZ058-059-110000-
/O.EXP.KTOP.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-080410T2300Z/
COFFEY-ANDERSON-
554 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS ARE NO LONGER
ANTICIPATED...THUS THE ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
354 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...
08Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND LIFTING THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALSO
WHERE THE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING. A WARM FRONT COULD
BE FOUND FROM NORTH TX STRETCHING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OK AND
INTO NORTHERN AR.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD MAINLY
BE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE FROM ABOUT 17Z TO 23Z AS SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /RUFFLY ACROSS MHK/. WITH THE DRY
SLOT WORKING IN...SOME CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED
TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...JUST AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES OVER EAST
CENTRAL KS. THINK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE TURNPIKE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. WITH THE CLOSE LOW
OVERHEAD...WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR LOW TOP SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY WITH THE
CLEARING AND SFC LOW DEEPENING...THINK STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ABLE
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR COFFEY AND
ANDERSON COUNTIES. ALSO WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE LETTING THE FLOOD
WATCH EXPIRE AT 18Z...SO WILL EXTEND THE WATCH UNTIL 6 PM AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT TWEAKED POPS UP TO BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A DEFORMATION BAND STILL LINGERING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN OF COURSE ANY CONVECTION
EXITING TO THE EAST OVER FAR EASTERN KS. POPS FOR FRIDAY THOUGH
SATURDAY ARE MAINLY FOR INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT. THEN AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES
OR SPRINKLES WITH THE MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOW A COUPLE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL PROGS
SHOW MIXING 800 TEMPS TO THE SFC WOULD YIELD MID 40S...AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS KEEP SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR FRIDAY. WITH
CLOUDY SKIES AND STRONG MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO GRADIENT
WINDS...WOULD EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR A HARD FREEZE SUNDAY
MORNING AS SKIES FINALLY CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DIMINISH. HOWEVER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY FALL OFF. FORECAST HAS MINS
AT FREEZING. IF WINDS DECOUPLE...TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING.

AFTER SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
THIS WOULD INDICATE A MODERATION IN TEMPS WITH A DRY
FORECAST...WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

WOLTERS

.AVIATION...
BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH CIGS
REMAIN IFR AT TOP/FOE...AND BORDERLINE LIFR AT MHK. NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIP TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. CIGS TO REMAIN
IFR/LIFR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 18Z...WHEN DRY SLOT AND SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTION OVERRUN NE KS...SOUTH OF SFC WARM FRONT.
CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHERLY SFC
WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GOOD MIXING.  CONVECTION MAY REFIRE ALONG
SFC COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PROMPTING
INCLUSION OF VCTS AT TOP/FOE...WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS PREVAIL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AFTER 03Z...AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

LUNDE

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR KSZ026-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM TODAY FOR KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
342 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-102045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
342 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT MAY BECOME HEAVY OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO TOPEKA. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. AS A VERY WARM MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO MIDDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST OF A LINE FROM COUNCIL GROVE
TO ALMA TO HOLTON. THE MAIN THREAT TIME WILL BE FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED
OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY.

BOUSTEAD