Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
247 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE 17 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA MAINLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND. THE SURFACE AIRMASS HAS
BEEN DRIER THAN FORECAST (WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST GA)...SO THIS AREA HAS BEEN GENERALLY VOID OF
STORMS SO FAR. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PROFILERS SHOWED AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
RATHER STAGNANT OVER OUR AREA AS WE REMAIN SOUTH OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE (AND
ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL DRY AIR) WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST
(NEAR THE CENTER OF A 500 MB HIGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST)...LEAVING OUR REGION WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY...MAINLY ALONG SEA
BREEZE FRONTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ABOUT THE
1000-700 MB MEAN WIND...WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW MUCH AND
WHEN AFTERNOON STORMS WILL DEVELOP. FOR NOW WE WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST A FLOW OF 5 TO 8 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. OUR POP WILL BE IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE...WHICH IS A
BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE SBCAPE WILL BE NEAR 2500 J/KG EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL RETROGRESSION OF THE STRONG HOT
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND
ALLOWING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE PATTERN...AND CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR EXPECT THE FRONT
TO STALL OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEABREEZE...TO PROVIDE AN
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE AIDED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL HAS INCREASED COVERAGE OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AS
FORECAST. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR CIGS AND MVFR-LOCAL IFR VSBYS
IN TSRA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALSO, WIND GUSTS OF
30 KTS OR HIGHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INVOF STRONGER TSRA. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. THE LATEST NAM12 SURFACE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MVFR-LOCAL
IFR VSBYS WILL BE INVOF KVLD AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE,
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY DROP NEAR 35 PERCENT WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT LONG OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A
RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  71  92  71  90  71 /  30  50  30  50  30
PANAMA CITY  75  91  75  89  75 /  30  40  30  50  30
DOTHAN       72  92  73  92  73 /  30  40  30  50  30
ALBANY       71  93  72  93  71 /  30  40  30  50  30
VALDOSTA     71  89  70  90  70 /  30  60  30  50  30
CROSS CITY   71  90  71  89  70 /  30  60  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOURNIER/DUVAL/JAMSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
456 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-111000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
456 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008 /356 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

CAMP

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