Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF INLAND PORTIONS OF LOCAL
AREA THIS EVENING...

...RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH MID WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS..
WITH WEAK UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIFTING WWD ALLOWING
CONVECTION TO COMMENCE EARLY ACROSS GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH
SPREAD NWWD AND WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW IGNITED STRONG TO ISOLD
SEVERE PULSE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALONG SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS INITIALLY ACROSS INLAND PANHANDLE...THEN SE ALA AND
LATER INTO SW AND...FINALLY SCNTRL GA PERSISTING THERE PAST 8 PM
EDT. AT 807 PM KABY INDICATED A WIND GUST OF 67KT WITH SEVERAL
SPOTTER REPORTS OF NICKLE AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. AROUND 820
PM...REPORTS OF PENNY TO GOLF BALL SIZES HAIL JUST N OF DOUGHERTY IN
LEE COUNTY. (SEE LSRTAE). CONVECTION ALONG E COAST SEABREEZE NOW
ALONG I-75 WITH SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LINGERING AND MUST
BY MONITORED SHOULD THEY SURVIVE INTO OUR CWA.

AT UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER HEAT RIDGE CENTERED OVER EAST COAST IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER PLAINS AND ASSOCD SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TUTT LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GOM AND NRN FL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AND BEGIN TO FILL. THIS WILL VEER PERSISTENT DEEP ELY STEERING FLOW
OF RECENT DAYS TO MORE SLY WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY/CAPE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUES. BY WEDNESDAY...ABOVE SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES EWD BUT STILL MANAGE TO KICK LOW EAST OF AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER CWA SO POPS AND CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS
WILL BE LESS ON WED. WITH THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...H5-H2 TEMPS WILL COOL OFF SO HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY COME DOWN...HOWEVER...STILL IN THE LOWER 90S.

AT LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH OVER WRN ATLC WITH RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED EAST TO WEST FROM WRN
ATLC TO ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE NORTHERN GOM THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT S/SW FLOW STREAMING AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH
AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ENCOURAGING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEABREEZE INDUCED STORM DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUED FLOW OUT OF THE
S/SW WILL KEEP APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM ENTERING CWA AND
COMBINE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WE WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST
POPS (40/50) DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER DYNAMICS
WILL DECREASE SO CONVECTION MAINLY A FUNCTION OF SEABREEZE
INFLUENCES WITH POPS DECREASING TO 30-40 N-S SPLIT.

.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY)
ZFP UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVE EVENING MAINLY SW AND LATELY
SCNTRL GA (SEE ABOVE). OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND. WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES AND LIGHT WINDS...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG EXPECTED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM PANAMA CITY TO VALDOSTA

.AVIATION...LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN AT
KABY UNTIL AROUND 02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR OVERNIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE MAINLY AT TLH AND PFN.
CONVECTION WILL GET AN EARLIER START ON TUE, SO PROB GROUPS WERE
INCLUDED STARTING AT 16-18Z FOR TLH, PFN AND VLD.  MVFR VSBYS AND
CIGS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID WEEK. EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE LEVELS. THIS INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON WILL
CAUSE THE SEAS NEAR THE COAST TO BECOME CHOPPY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS WEAK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL ALSO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS FROM
OCCURRING.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

BLOCK/WATSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
526 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-101000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
526 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2008 /426 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH WELL INTO
THE UPPER 90S.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEABREEZE AND SLOWLY MOVE INLAND. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

CAMP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
715 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

GAZ121-142-100000-
CLAY-EARLY-
715 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR CLAY AND EARLY
COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

AT 712 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLAKELY...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 23 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

12-WATSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
735 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

GAZ121>123-100030-
CALHOUN-CLAY-RANDOLPH-
735 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN...CLAY AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

AT 731 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EDISON...OR 10 MILES WEST OF MORGAN...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

12-WATSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
823 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALBANY                  31.58N 84.18W
06/09/2008  M0 MPH           DOUGHERTY          GA   ASOS

            TWO REPORTS FROM ALBANY ASOS AT 0002Z 60KT GUST AND
            00007Z 67KT GUSTS

&&

BLOCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
825 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             ALBANY                  31.58N 84.18W
06/09/2008  E1.00 INCH       DOUGHERTY          GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO REPORTS 1-DOWNTOWN ALBANY QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 2-IN
            NW DOUGHERTY COUNTY..NICKLE SIZED HAIL

&&

BLOCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
838 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             LEESBURG                31.73N 84.17W
06/09/2008  E1.75 INCH       LEE                GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO REPORTS OF HAIL 1-PENNY AND 2-GOLF BALL

&&

BLOCK

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