River Flood Warning 9, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
935 AM EST SAT FEB 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWA TO THE SE THIS MORNING...WITH THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF NOW PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG IN THE ADVISORY AREA HAS NOW LIFTED AS
WELL...BUT AN EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS LINGERING WELL OFF
TO THE N AND W BEHIND THE FRONT...AND IT MAY VERY WELL TAKE UNTIL AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON TO BREAK OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...THE
TEMPERATURE FCST MAY BE PROBLEMATIC IF THE CLOUDS HANG IN LONGER
THAN EXPECTED...SO WILL MAKE LATER ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED. OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WINDS ARE NOW SHIFTING TO THE NW OVER THE WESTERN
LEGS...AND THESE NW WINDS SHOULD REACH EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE
MARINE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEAS ARE ON TRACK AT 2
TO 4 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...THE AREA OF RAIN HAS NOW EXITED OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND NOW IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN AREA OF
EXTENSIVE IFR AND LOWER CIGS BLANKET A MAJOR PART OF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. NORTH OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FLORIDA. THE COLD
FRONT APPEARS TO BE SITUATED JUST WEST OF A LINE FROM ABY TO AAF.
THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS WHEN WILL THE CIGS BEGIN TO BREAK AND BURN
OFF. WE ARE NOW SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL THAT OUR AREA WILL BREAK OUT
UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. HOWEVER...VSBYS ARE GENERALLY FINE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND WE ALSO EXPECT THE CIGS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE
IFR AND MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CLEARING
OUT THIS EVENING.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

GA...NONE.

FL...FIRE WX WATCH SUN AFTN ALL ZONES.

GM...NONE.

&&

GOULD/WATSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
102 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 74 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND...

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-231900-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
102 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2008 /1202 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 74 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN BIG BEND...

A STRONG LING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE WEATHER...SOME OF THE RAINFALL MAY ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE
HEAVY. MANY LOCAL RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH AND ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN MORE FLOODING ISSUES. SEE LOCAL
FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS ON HEIGHT AND TIMING OF RIVER CRESTS.
IN ADDITION TO THE RIVERS...WIDESPREAD RAINFALLS BETWEEN TWO AND
FIVE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRED ON THURSDAY.
AFTER THIS RAINFALL THE GROUND HAS BECOME SATURATED IN MANY
LOCATIONS MAKING THE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT TODAY ALONG THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY BRINGING TO AN
END ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

MROCZKA/GIBBS