River Flood Warning 33, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1024 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.UPDATE...TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUING HER SLOW CRAWL TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING WITH THE CENTER NOW APPROACHING PANAMA CITY. STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW EAST OF THE CENTER IS GENERATING AN INTENSE BAND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL JUST EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. RADAR ESTIMATED RAIN
RATES HAVE PASSED 6 INCHES PER HOUR WITH THIS BAND. WINDS ARE
STILL GUSTING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BIG BEND COASTLINE. STORM SURGE RAN ABOUT 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE HIGH
TIDE THIS MORNING IN THE BIG BEND. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO BE ABOUT
A FOOT LOWER TONIGHT...BUT WITH CONTINUED STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECT 2 TO 4 FEET SURGE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WIND AND RAIN HIGHLIGHTED. NO
CHANGES PLANNED TO GRIDS OR ZONES THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS RUNNING 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TROPICAL STORM FORCE. WILL UPDATE THE MARINE
FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY ADJUST WORDING...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL STORM FAY CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE WEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINBANDS WRAPPING AROUND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM EFFECTING
KABY...KTLH...AND KVLD THIS MORNING. PREVAILING MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TERMINALS INTO THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. LIGHTER
RAINS FOR KPFN AND KDHN ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THE CENTER
CONTINUES WEST INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE LIGHTER RAINS THIS
MORNING...CIGS ARE QUITE LOW TO THE WEST WITH TEMPO IFR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND LOWEST CIGS/VIS SHOULD END
AROUND KVLD DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE...AT LEAST PERIODICALLY AROUND KTLH INTO AT LEAST THE
EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...THE THREAT FOR
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  85  75  85  75  90 / 100  80  70  60  60
PANAMA CITY  83  79  83  78  87 / 100  90  90  70  70
DOTHAN       83  74  82  73  88 / 100  90  80  70  70
ALBANY       84  74  85  73  89 /  90  80  70  60  60
VALDOSTA     86  74  86  74  90 /  90  70  70  60  60
CROSS CITY   88  76  86  77  90 / 100  80  70  60  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...
     COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...
     IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...
     QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...
     TURNER...WORTH.

FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL
     WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...COASTAL
     WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GULF...JEFFERSON...TAYLOR...
     WAKULLA.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND
     WALTON...JACKSON...WASHINGTON.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

CAMP/BARRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
549 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-241000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
549 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 /449 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AT 4 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NORTH OF APALACHICOLA
AND WAS MOVING WEST AROUND 7 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG OR
NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS
WILL ROTATE EAST TO WEST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES TO 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE FLORIDA
COAST WHICH WILL GENERATE FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES. SEE THE HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS AND A LIST OF
NON-ROUTINE PRODUCTS IN EFFECT. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS REMAINS ACROSS LOCAL BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TROPICAL STORM
FAY WILL TRAVERSE EXIT THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY BUT FEEDER BANDS
BEHIND THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA
WITH FLOODING AND STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. BY MIDWEEK...RAINFALL PATTERNS WILL
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL SEABREEZE DRIVEN TYPE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WEATHER AND REPORT ANY FLOODING AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

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