Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
348 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN APALACHEE BAY OR IN THE VICINITY OF DOG
ISLAND AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD AROUND 5-8 MPH. THE
850-500MB STEERING FLOW HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AT ALL OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH THE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF FAY. AS A RESULT...THIS
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. THE OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST VORTEX DATA MESSAGE ESTIMATED A MSLP
AROUND 997 MB AND 45 KTS AS THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS. THE LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA ARE MAINLY SHOWING THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE GUSTS IN THE RAIN BAND.

ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM RADAR ARE NOW RANGING ANYWHERE
FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 6 TO 7 INCHES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BAND STREAMING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. ACCUMULATIONS AT FSU ARE NOW UP TO 4.63 INCHES. ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NHC CONTINUES TO SHOW FAY TRACKING
WEST AND HUGGING THE PANHANDLE COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THIS TRACK FORECAST HAS FAY MOVING AROUND 9-10 MPH ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY...WHICH IS QUITE FASTER THAN WHAT FAY HAS BEEN
TRACKING. ALL COASTAL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NHC AND TROPICAL STORM LOCAL
STATEMENTS FROM THE NWS TALLAHASSEE FOR ANY TRACK/SPEED AND
INTENSITY CHANGES.

AS FAY MOVES WEST ACROSS THE BIG BEND/PANHANDLE COAST THE MAIN
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
BANDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AND POSSIBLY SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST OVER THE TRADITIONALLY PRONE
FLOOD AREAS...SUCH AS THE ST. MARKS AREA. THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES IN THE BIG BEND WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 4.3 FEET AT 6 TO 7
AM SATURDAY MORNING...THEN AROUND 3 FT AT 8 PM SATURDAY EVENING.

ONCE THE CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES INLAND ACROSS FRANKLIN COUNTY
THE WINDS WILL BECOME ESE OVER THE BAY...WHICH WILL EXPOSE AREAS
OF THE BIG BEND COAST. THE SLOSH MODEL ESTIMATES 2-4 STORM SURGE
POSSIBILITIES EXTENDING WEST AROUND THE BIG BEND COAST FROM DIXIE
COUNTY TO ALLIGATOR POINT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY EVENING...WHICH IS CONCURRENT WITH THE SECOND HIGH TIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND WILL ULTIMATELY
DEPEND ON THE FINAL TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM FAY. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST AND THE MODELS INDICATE FAY WILL MOVE TO A POSITION
WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND
MAY STALL AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
WEAK.

CURRENTLY...THE MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA
WRAPPING INTO FAY FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP
THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS SHOW REMNANTS OF
FAY LIFTING OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...ALL SMALL CRAFT ARE ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN IN PORT
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. WAVE
HEIGHTS AT THE APALACHICOLA BUOY (42036) CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND
IS NOW UP TO AROUND 11 FT/8 SECONDS. THESE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN UP
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND WILL BUILD WEST SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE
AS FAY CONTINUES WEST. ALL COASTAL INTERESTS AND MARINERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FROM
THE NHC. THE GLOBAL WAVE MODELS AT THE APALACHICOLA BUOY (42036)
SHOWS THE SEAS INCREASING TO THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE WITH 5 TO 7
SECOND PERIODS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

ADDITIONALLY....AS FAY CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE
PANHANDLE...STRONG ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THE SURF HEIGHTS
AND RIP CURRENTS TO DANGEROUS LEVELS FROM CAPE ST. BLAS TO DESTIN.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE OVERALL FORECAST FROM THE LAST TAF PACKAGE. RAIN BANDS ARE
ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. KDHN AND KPFN
JUST SEEING THESE BANDS ARRIVE AND THEY WILL OVERSPREAD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. BASICALLY LOOKING AT A SHOWERY PERIOD THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH OFF AND ON RAIN BANDS CIRCULATING AROUND FAY. A
GENERAL MVFR SCENARIO FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF IFR
VIS ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER RAIN BANDS. WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST IN THE 15-25 KNOT
RANGE...GUSTS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS EXPECTED TO REACH UP INTO
THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY FROM KTLH TO KVLD. FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTLINE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR OFF AND ON RAIN
BANDS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY. WINDS CONTINUE GUSTY
SWITCHING THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM KTLH TO KVLD AND KABY AND
CONTINUING NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT KPFN AND KVLD. THE POTENTIAL
EXIST FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM KPFN TO KTLH SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FAY TRACKS
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  85  75  85  75  90 / 100  80  70  60  60
PANAMA CITY  83  79  83  78  87 / 100  90  90  70  70
DOTHAN       83  74  82  73  88 / 100  90  80  70  70
ALBANY       84  74  85  73  89 /  90  80  70  60  60
VALDOSTA     86  74  86  74  90 /  90  70  70  60  60
CROSS CITY   88  76  86  77  90 / 100  80  70  60  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...
     COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...
     IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...MITCHELL...
     QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...THOMAS...TIFT...
     TURNER...WORTH.

FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL
     WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...COASTAL
     WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GULF...JEFFERSON...TAYLOR...
     WAKULLA.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND
     WALTON...JACKSON...WASHINGTON.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

GIBBS/MROCZKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
549 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-241000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
549 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 /449 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AT 4 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NORTH OF APALACHICOLA
AND WAS MOVING WEST AROUND 7 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG OR
NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS
WILL ROTATE EAST TO WEST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES TO 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE FLORIDA
COAST WHICH WILL GENERATE FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES. SEE THE HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS AND A LIST OF
NON-ROUTINE PRODUCTS IN EFFECT. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS REMAINS ACROSS LOCAL BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TROPICAL STORM
FAY WILL TRAVERSE EXIT THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY BUT FEEDER BANDS
BEHIND THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA
WITH FLOODING AND STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. BY MIDWEEK...RAINFALL PATTERNS WILL
RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL SEABREEZE DRIVEN TYPE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WEATHER AND REPORT ANY FLOODING AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

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