Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
329 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE EFFORT TODAY PUT INTO THE COMPLICATED SHORT TERM THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT A WORKED OVER
AIR MASS...WHICH IS JUST NOW STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
DESTABILIZING...WITH CAPE VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1500 ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES TO PUSHING 2500 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM SOMEWHERE AROUND BROWNWOOD
BACK TO SAN ANGELO AND THEN NORTHWEST TO MIDLAND. LIFT WITH THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS NEW MEXICO HAS GENERATED STORMS OUT ALONG THE TEXAS
AND NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND EXPECT THAT BETWEEN A JET MAX THAT
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WHATS
LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STORMS SHOULD START TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

HAVE SEEN BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...BUT BOTH ARE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT ANY STORMS THAT CAN CROSS OR TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.

STILL NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW WELL THE AIR MASS WILL RESPOND ONCE
THE STORMS GET GOING...IF NOTHING ELSE BECAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
INCLUDING THE MOISTURE INFLOW REMAIN WEAK. WILL RUN CHANCE POPS
PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE FOR TONIGHT AND SEE HOW THE SITUATION
DEVELOPS.

ONCE THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT LATER TONIGHT...COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. POPS BEGIN TO DROP AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...

UPPER TROUGH STILL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
PREFER THE GENERAL HANDLING OF THE SITUATION OF THE ECMWF TO THE
GFS. THUS...WILL TRY TO LIMIT POPS TO JUST THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREAS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 54  75  53  76 /  40  10  10  10
SAN ANGELO 	 59  79  54  76 /  30  20  20  10
JUNCTION 	 61  79  56  79 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
213 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-151915-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
213 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...THE MAIN THREATS BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
416 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HAIL             MERTZON                 31.26N 100.82W
05/14/2008  E0.75 INCH       IRION              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
427 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             9 E MERTZON             31.26N 100.66W
05/14/2008  E1.00 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
432 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HAIL             2 SSW TANKERSLEY        31.32N 100.66W
05/14/2008  E1.00 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
433 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     HAIL             3 W CHRISTOVAL          31.19N 100.55W
05/14/2008  E0.88 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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