Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
638 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL
OF BECOMING SEVERE... ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING AND WILL STALL ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY 06Z/14 AND WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON....SO THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008/

SHORT TERM...

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO ACROSS THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND THE BIG COUNTRY ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO
OKLAHOMA AND ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW
SITUATED IN WEST TEXAS/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND DRYLINE IS STARTING
TO ADVANCE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BIG COUNTRY. FOR TONIGHT WEAK COLD FRONT
REMAINS STATIONARY AND DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I 20 CORRIDOR AND TO THE NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY. ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY OCCUR MAY
BECOME SEVERE. BULK SHEAR 0-6 KM IS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KTS. STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES EXISTS ESPECIALLY ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES.

WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE INTO TEXAS AND THE COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY DRYLINE ADVANCES THROUGH MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRYLINE RETREATS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY AS BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONCE AGAIN IN
THE RANGE OF 35 TO 50 KTS.

THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CHANGE BY FRIDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH AS
A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES BACK INTO WEST TEXAS.

LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY...A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PUT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THIS WILL KEEP POP CHANCES LOW FOR THE MOST PART.
THE RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AS WELL. GFS/ECMWF SLOWLY WEAKEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...NEVER REALLY LIFTING IT TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA. SO...HAVE LEFT POPS LOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS WELL. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 66  80  55  75 /  60  30  40  10
SAN ANGELO 	 67  88  56  77 /  50  20  20  10
JUNCTION 	 70  90  59  83 /  70  20  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
358 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-142100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
358 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO
POSSIBLE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF AN ABILENE TO SAN ANGELO TO OZONA LINE.
AS THE DRYLINE STARTS TO RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST THIS
EVENING...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BOTH ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. ONE THE STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY ALONG BOTH THE DRYLINE AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AGAIN...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
454 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

TXZ072-077-132230-
TOM GREEN TX-SCHLEICHER TX-
454 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR TOM GREEN
AND SCHLEICHER COUNTIES...

AT 448 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR FROM ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH OF ELDORADO
TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTOVAL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
643 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             BRADY                   31.14N 99.33W
05/13/2008  E1.75 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL REPORTS IN THE CITY.

0618 PM     HAIL             4 NW BRADY              31.18N 99.38W
05/13/2008  E1.00 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
651 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TSTM WND GST     BRADY                   31.14N 99.33W
05/13/2008  E60 MPH          MCCULLOCH          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
702 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HAIL             BRADY                   31.14N 99.33W
05/13/2008  E1.75 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JSTATES