River Flood Warning 41, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1129 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES...ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND FLOODING CURRENTLY ONGOING. LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOW EXCEEDED SIX INCHES. MODELS AND GUIDANCE
HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS SMALL SCALE EVENT VERY WELL...SO A LITTLE
BEHIND. IF RAINFALL SHOWS SIGNS OF CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT THE
WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
LONGER DURATION RAINFALL. NO CHANGES BEYOND FIRST PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACTIVITY PULSATING AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST.
OUTSIDE OF MAIN AREA EXPERIENCING MOSTLY MVFR CIGS/VSBSY BUT WITHIN
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL
INTO MID AFTERNOON. VFR NOT RECOMMENDED OVER ARKLATEX TODAY.  MVFR
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR OVC/BKN040 BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUING IN VICINITY OF CONVECTION.
OTKL.. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT RAPID MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL YIELD INCREASING SRLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS
TO 25KTS AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY. WHILE CIGS LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
... EXPECT DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
BKN LINE OF STRONG/SVR CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE AREA. /01/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  62  79  63 / 100  20  60  70
MLU  79  61  81  64 /  80  20  40  80
DEQ  74  65  73  56 /  90  20  70  70
TXK  75  64  76  60 / 100  20  70  70
ELD  78  61  78  61 / 100  20  60  70
TYR  76  66  76  62 /  60  20  70  70
GGG  76  65  77  61 / 100  20  70  70
LFK  77  65  79  63 /  70  20  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...HOWARD...LAFAYETTE...LITTLE
     RIVER...MILLER...NEVADA...AND SEVIER.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BIENVILLE...BOSSIER...CADDO...CLAIBORNE...DE
     SOTO...NATCHITOCHES...RED RIVER...SABINE LA...AND WEBSTER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND
     MCCURTAIN.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BOWIE...CAMP...CASS...FRANKLIN...GREGG...HARRISON...MARION...MORRIS...PANOLA...RED
     RIVER...RUSK...SABINE TX...SAN
     AUGUSTINE...SHELBY...TITUS...AND UPSHUR.

&&

14/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-311700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1155 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY EAST OF A
LUFKIN TEXAS TO IDABEL OKLAHOMA LINE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
RISK IS HAIL GREATER THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER.

IN ADDITION...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THIS COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A STALLED
WARM FRONT. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRONG...HAIL
PRODUCING...STORMS. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THE CONVECTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A SQUALL LINE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...MAY BRING THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NECESSARY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1139 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             KILGORE                 32.39N 94.87W
03/29/2008  E1.75 INCH       GREGG              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 PM     HAIL             4 E LONGVIEW            32.52N 94.69W
03/29/2008  E1.75 INCH       GREGG              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1221 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     HAIL             CENTER                  31.79N 94.18W
03/30/2008  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1145 AM     HAIL             10 N HEMPHILL           31.49N 93.85W
03/30/2008  E0.75 INCH       SABINE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1225 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LONGVIEW                32.52N 94.76W
03/30/2008                   GREGG              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY ROADS FLOODED AROUND COUNTY.

&&

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1255 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             HALLSVILLE              32.58N 94.58W
03/29/2008  M1.00 INCH       HARRISON           TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HAIL COVERING GROUND...LASTED 15 MINS

&&

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N HALLSVILLE          32.58N 94.58W
03/30/2008                   HARRISON           TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PAGE CREEK FLOWING OUT OF BANKS

&&

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
130 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N HEMPHILL            31.41N 93.85W
03/30/2008                   SABINE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY ROADS UNDER WATER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
            COUNTY.

&&

03