Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO MAKE A LITTLE PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS MOVED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. IT SHOULD MOVE
NORTH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP...
ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST ALL AREAS THIS EVENING THEN TRIM BACK AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN CHANCE FOR SUNDAY SMALL...AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. NAM SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 30 POP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER STILL ON TRACK FOR
MONDAY...AS IT DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE U.S...FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO TEXAS. CONVECTION SHOULD
BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A SQUALL LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
REACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVER
NIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS
GOOD...WITH SPC OUTLOOK INDICATING SUCH. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA...UNTIL THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE EXPECTED THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE GOOD FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND
MOVING FROM W TO E IN CURRENT MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND BEHIND
STALLED COOL FRONT ACROSS SE TX AND CENTRAL LA.  EXPECT THIS FRONT
TO BEGIN MOVING N AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
IMPULSES IN THE MID LEVELS FROM 10K TO 30K FEET IN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AREAS.  VIII.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  79  63  78 /  30  30  20  60
MLU  60  81  61  81 /  30  30  20  40
DEQ  55  78  61  73 /  40  30  20  70
TXK  59  79  63  77 /  40  30  20  70
ELD  60  82  61  79 /  40  30  20  60
TYR  62  78  66  76 /  40  30  20  70
GGG  61  78  64  76 /  40  30  20  70
LFK  63  78  66  78 /  30  30  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
714 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-301100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
714 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
AN AREA OF ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...BY AROUND
SUNSET...AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS...MAINLY IN EAST TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY MONDAY...
AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY ENTER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND WILL AFFECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THUS ENDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER...HAM RADIO OPERATOR...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL ACTIVATION...IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

VII

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
806 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             4 S JACKSONVILLE        31.91N 95.26W
03/29/2008  E1.25 INCH       CHEROKEE           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND RUSK

&&

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
814 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             RUSK                    31.80N 95.15W
03/29/2008  E0.75 INCH       CHEROKEE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALSO ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS OCCURRING

&&

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
852 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW LONDON              32.27N 94.93W
03/29/2008                   RUSK               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWNED

&&

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
919 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     HAIL             KILGORE                 32.39N 94.87W
03/29/2008  E1.75 INCH       GREGG              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED ON STONE RD.

&&

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
929 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     HAIL             KILGORE                 32.39N 94.87W
03/29/2008  E0.25 INCH       GREGG              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ABOUT ONE INCH OF SMALL HAIL ON GROUND...SMALL LIMBS
            DOWN...POWER OUT

&&

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
931 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             LONGVIEW                32.52N 94.76W
03/29/2008  E1.00 INCH       GREGG              TX   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            FROM RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

12