Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Shreveport, LA

000 
WGUS74 KSHV 111208
FFSSHV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
708 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2008

LAC021-073-111245-
/O.CON.KSHV.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-080811T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OUACHITA LA-CALDWELL LA-
708 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL CALDWELL AND SOUTHERN OUACHITA PARISHES...

AT 704 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED NUMEROUS 
ROADWAYS FLOODED THROUGHT SOUTHERN OUACHITA PARISH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RICHWOOD AND
BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOMVILLE

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED 
AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
SHREVEPORT.

LAT...LON 3244 9195 3239 9199 3231 9201 3229 9202
      3228 9198 3225 9198 3225 9220 3233 9225
      3249 9219 3249 9193

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
BAJA/SONORA...ALLOWING FOR NW FLOW ALOFT FM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THRU
THE FOUR-STATE AREA.  A LARGE...DECAYING MCS WAS NOTED OVER KLBB AND
VICINITY...WHILE CLOSER TO HOME...ANOTHER WAS DEVELOPING OVER SE OK
TO BRING IN THE NEXT SHOT OF RAIN.  24-HR MPE ESTIMATES NOTE THAT
THE BULK OF HEAVIEST PRECIP FELL JUST NE OF THE CWA IN AR...ALSO
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FFG.  THUS...WE/LL AGAIN HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.  REPEATED MCS DEVELOPMENT HAS MADE THE
GFS SOMEWHAT NOISY...BUT LATEST RUN HINTS AT A SECOND ONE DEVELOPING
AGAIN TONIGHT AND FOLLOWING THE FIRST...SO DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
RE-ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WATCH THEN.  STILL...00Z KSHV RAOB
SHOWED AMS WELL ON ITS WAY TO SATURATION...AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWATS MAXING OUT AT AROUND 2.7IN IN NW LA LATE TONIGHT...SO WE/LL
CONTINUE MENTIONING HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS THRU TUESDAY MORNING
WHEN SECOND PROGGED MCS EXITS.  OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
DRY...SAME FOR MAYBE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH ON
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES.  THURSDAY...LARGE TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...W/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PRECEDING IT...AND PUSHES
A FRONT THRU THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.  FCST
SOUNDINGS/SHEAR PROGS ALONG THE FRONT SUGGEST FRIDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
A FEW SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT CAN BE FURTHER ASSESSED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.  OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AGAIN TODAY...BUT THE
LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE THRU WEDNESDAY...W/MAYBE A
BRIEF WARMUP THURSDAY BEFORE INCOMING TROUGH/FRONT TAKES TEMPS BACK
BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

NW FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO ROLL INTO AREA. SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER AREA NEAR I 20. S WINDS S OF FRONT...E WINDS N
OF FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12/06Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MORNING PRECIP...PROBABLY VFR
DURING MIDDAY THROUGH EVENING PRECIP. ALSO THIS MORNING WILL SEE
PATCHY IFR CIGS. PRECIP AREA ATTM MAINLY N OF A LINE FROM
CLARKSVILLE TX TO SHV TO AEX. THIS PRECIP AREA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  73  86  71  90 / 100  60  80   0  10
MLU  80  71  82  69  91 / 100  60  90  30  10
DEQ  80  70  88  65  90 / 100  60  40   0   0
TXK  80  71  87  69  90 / 100  70  60   0   0
ELD  78  70  84  65  87 / 100  80  70   0   0
TYR  87  75  88  71  89 /  60  60  50   0   0
GGG  87  74  86  69  88 /  70  60  60   0   0
LFK  92  75  88  73  89 /  60  60  70  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1145 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1145 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST AND DEEP EAST TEXAS...AND
FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF A
TYLER TEXAS...TO JENA LOUISIANA LINE.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.  HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AT TIMES LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY AT TIMES FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  BY MONDAY...THE
GROUND MAY BECOME SATURATED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20...AND
RESULT IN A POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER...HAM RADIO OPERATOR...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

24