Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON.  A SURFACE LOW WAS TRACKING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WHICH PULLED MID 50 DEW POINTS IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-44.  MEANWHILE
CLOUD BREAKS ALLOWED FOR GOOD DAYTIME HEATING...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A
SAGGING FRONTAL SYSTEM MIGHT ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO UNFOLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...I THINK THE MAIN EVENT FOR A LARGER AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL UNFOLD LATER TONIGHT...AND WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.

A COUPLE OF ISOLATED ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING GIVEN THE EXISTING ENVIRONMENT.  A LAYER OF WARM AIR
ALOFT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION...AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE NEEDED FOR
UPDRAFTS TO BREAK THROUGH THIS CAP.  THE CAP IS VERY STRONG...AND
THINK ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

LESS SEVERE BUT A HIGHER FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE 850MB FRONT LATER TONIGHT.  THIS POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO BEEN INDICATED BY MODEL QPF...BUT ALSO BY THE
WRF RADAR SIMULATION.  THEREFORE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY...MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH REGARDS
TO ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.  WITH THIS SAID...AN
INCREASE IN POPS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI DUE
TO RESIDUAL SHOWERS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURGE OF A
WARM FRONT.  MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH THIS MOISTURE
SURGE.  I CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT...HOWEVER...ITS CERTAINLY
NOT GOING TO BE A SOLID SHIELD OF RAIN...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.  WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AND
LOW 60S.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY)...
RAPID MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIODS.  A HIGHLY CHARGED GULF OF MEXICO WILL BECOME WIDE
OPEN...ALLOWING UNUSUAL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY
(THURSDAY)...WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF MOISTURE SOURCE
REGION CONTINUES TO CHARGE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT QUICKLY SURGES BACK INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.  THE GFS INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL INCREASE TO VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.20 - 1.50 INCHES.  THE WARM FRONT IS INDICATED BY
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 54 AND INTERSTATE 70...THEN PUSH BACK INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.  RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FLASH FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY.

FLOOD POTENTIAL:
THERE IS ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IN TODAYS MODELS RUNS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS...WHICH REGARDS A STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FASTER ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  THIS WOULD
SUGGEST LESS TRAINING OF STORMS...LEADING TO LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOWS A GOOD HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL
AS THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF MAGNITUDE BECOMES FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI FOR A GOOD 6-12 HOURS.  GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PWAT
VALUES EXPECTED...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
STILL FORECASTED BETWEEN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS TYPE OF
RAINFALL WILL STILL CAUSE ANOTHER EPISODE OF FLOODING.  ESPECIALLY
SINCE RUNOFF WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH THE LACK OF MARCH VEGETATION.

SEVERE POTENTIAL:
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER WILL EXIST FROM
SUNDAY - MONDAY AFTERNOON.  ATTEMPTING TO PINPOINT AN EXACT TIME
WHEN SEVERE STORMS WILL GO UP REMAINS A SHORT TERM FORECAST
CHALLENGE.  PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION.  COMBINE THIS MOISTURE RETURN WITH
POSSIBLE DAYTIME HEATING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE.  UNDER THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  AT THIS TIME ITS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN WHAT WILL TRIGGER ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAY 54
AND INTERSTATE 70.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BECOME A FOCUS...BUT ANY SMALL UPPER PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD FIRE OFF STORMS THROUGH WHAT SHOULD BE A
WEAK CAP.  AGAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BECOME BETTER UNDERSTOOD
WITH LATER FORECAST.  AS OF NOW IM GOING TO INSERT SEVERE WORDING
INTO THE HWO FOR THE PERIODS SUNDAY AFTERNOON - MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
GFS AND ECMWF HAS GOOD CONSENSUS WITH RAIN EXITING THE REGION PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.  WILL KEEP SOME LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY NIGHT OUT EAST.  OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO CLEAR UP BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS SPREADS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY ONLY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HEADING INTO DAYS 6 AND 7...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SWIFT / ZONAL
UPPER FLOW IS SUGGESTED BY MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT.  MODELS SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.  HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
PERIODS.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND HAVE A BRIEF MENTION OF THAT IN
BOTH TAFS. LOW CEILINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SWEEP IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE PROGGED GFS AND WRF SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...HARD TO FIND A REASON NOT HAVE IFR
CEILINGS IN BOTH TAFS FOR TONIGHT. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1258 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND
 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

 AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

 CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
 THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
 ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS TO
 DEVELOP ON. MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
 WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AN
 AIRMASS LOADED IN MOISTURE CONTENT TO SURGE INTO SOUTHERN
 MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED
 WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND ALLOW IT TO
 BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.

 AS THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OUT NEAR THE
 OZARKS REGION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
 BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
 WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IS
 FORECASTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS
 COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MARCH VEGETATION...RUNOFF WILL BE
 ENHANCED...LEADING TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

 EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHER LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES ARE URGED
 TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS ISSUED BY THE
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
 EPISODE OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

MOZ055-068-069-272315-
HICKORY MO-CAMDEN MO-BENTON MO-
540 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN HICKORY...NORTHWESTERN
CAMDEN AND SOUTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 535 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR URBANA...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HERMITAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MACKS CREEK BY 555 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF CLIMAX SPRINGS...BARNUMTON AND HURRICANE DECK ARE IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             TUNAS                   37.85N 93.03W
03/27/2008  E1.75 INCH       DALLAS             MO   PUBLIC

&&

LINDENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

MOZ079-080-091-272315-
WEBSTER MO-POLK MO-DALLAS MO-
547 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL POLK...NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER
AND SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 545 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MORRISVILLE...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF BOLIVAR...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PLEASANT HOPE BY 555 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF FOOSE...OLIVE...MARCH...CHARITY AND ELKLAND ARE IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             2 SE MONTREAL           37.95N 92.57W
03/27/2008  E0.75 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
03/27/2008  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             MO   PUBLIC

&&

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             TUNAS                   37.85N 93.03W
03/27/2008  M1.75 INCH       DALLAS             MO   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

LINDENBERG