Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 272133
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
433 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

MOC085-185-272230-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-080327T2230Z/
HICKORY MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
433 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR HICKORY AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES...

AT 431 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLLINS...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
STOCKTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WEAUBLEAU BY 440 PM CDT.
  WHEATLAND BY 455 PM CDT.
  HERMITAGE BY 500 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF GERSTER...ELKTON...PITTSBURG...NEMO AND PRESTON ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3783 9320 3781 9354 3781 9358 3783 9358
      3783 9370 3783 9371 3783 9381 3792 9383
      3807 9316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 259DEG 34KT 3786 9362

$$

WISE

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 272148
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
449 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

MOC185-272159-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-080327T2230Z/
ST. CLAIR MO-
449 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3783 9320 3783 9358 3792 9355 3792 9352
      3799 9352 3807 9317 3806 9316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 255DEG 30KT 3789 9347

$$

MOC085-272230-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-080327T2230Z/
HICKORY MO-
449 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR HICKORY COUNTY...

AT 446 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEAUBLEAU...OR 11 MILES WEST OF HERMITAGE...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WHEATLAND BY 455 PM CDT.
  HERMITAGE BY 505 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF NEMO...PRESTON AND CROSS TIMBERS ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3783 9320 3783 9358 3792 9355 3792 9352
      3799 9352 3807 9317 3806 9316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 255DEG 30KT 3789 9347

$$

WISE

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 272201
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
501 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

MOC085-272230-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-080327T2230Z/
HICKORY MO-
501 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL HICKORY COUNTY...

AT 456 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHEATLAND...OR NEAR HERMITAGE...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
CENTRAL HICKORY COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF NEMO AND PRESTON.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...IF YOU
ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3799 9318 3798 9317 3783 9320 3784 9351
      3798 9346 3807 9318 3806 9316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 255DEG 30KT 3792 9335

$$

WISE

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 272222
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

MOC085-272232-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-080327T2230Z/
HICKORY MO-
522 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL HICKORY COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 530 PM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING IS EXITING THE WARNED AREA...
THUS THE WARNING IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3799 9318 3798 9317 3783 9320 3784 9351
      3798 9346 3807 9318 3806 9316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 255DEG 30KT 3797 9314

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON.  A SURFACE LOW WAS TRACKING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
WHICH PULLED MID 50 DEW POINTS IN AREAS SOUTH OF I-44.  MEANWHILE
CLOUD BREAKS ALLOWED FOR GOOD DAYTIME HEATING...WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A
SAGGING FRONTAL SYSTEM MIGHT ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO UNFOLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...I THINK THE MAIN EVENT FOR A LARGER AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL UNFOLD LATER TONIGHT...AND WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.

A COUPLE OF ISOLATED ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING GIVEN THE EXISTING ENVIRONMENT.  A LAYER OF WARM AIR
ALOFT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION...AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE NEEDED FOR
UPDRAFTS TO BREAK THROUGH THIS CAP.  THE CAP IS VERY STRONG...AND
THINK ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

LESS SEVERE BUT A HIGHER FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE 850MB FRONT LATER TONIGHT.  THIS POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION HAS ALSO BEEN INDICATED BY MODEL QPF...BUT ALSO BY THE
WRF RADAR SIMULATION.  THEREFORE AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY...MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH REGARDS
TO ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.  WITH THIS SAID...AN
INCREASE IN POPS FOR FRIDAY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI DUE
TO RESIDUAL SHOWERS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURGE OF A
WARM FRONT.  MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH THIS MOISTURE
SURGE.  I CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT...HOWEVER...ITS CERTAINLY
NOT GOING TO BE A SOLID SHIELD OF RAIN...AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.  WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AND
LOW 60S.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY)...
RAPID MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIODS.  A HIGHLY CHARGED GULF OF MEXICO WILL BECOME WIDE
OPEN...ALLOWING UNUSUAL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
REGION.  THE FRONT THAT WILL SHIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY
(THURSDAY)...WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF MOISTURE SOURCE
REGION CONTINUES TO CHARGE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT QUICKLY SURGES BACK INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.  THE GFS INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL INCREASE TO VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.20 - 1.50 INCHES.  THE WARM FRONT IS INDICATED BY
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 54 AND INTERSTATE 70...THEN PUSH BACK INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION.  RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF FLASH FLOODING IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY.

FLOOD POTENTIAL:
THERE IS ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IN TODAYS MODELS RUNS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS...WHICH REGARDS A STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE TO PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FASTER ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  THIS WOULD
SUGGEST LESS TRAINING OF STORMS...LEADING TO LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOWS A GOOD HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL
AS THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF MAGNITUDE BECOMES FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI FOR A GOOD 6-12 HOURS.  GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PWAT
VALUES EXPECTED...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
STILL FORECASTED BETWEEN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS TYPE OF
RAINFALL WILL STILL CAUSE ANOTHER EPISODE OF FLOODING.  ESPECIALLY
SINCE RUNOFF WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH THE LACK OF MARCH VEGETATION.

SEVERE POTENTIAL:
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER WILL EXIST FROM
SUNDAY - MONDAY AFTERNOON.  ATTEMPTING TO PINPOINT AN EXACT TIME
WHEN SEVERE STORMS WILL GO UP REMAINS A SHORT TERM FORECAST
CHALLENGE.  PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION.  COMBINE THIS MOISTURE RETURN WITH
POSSIBLE DAYTIME HEATING...THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE.  UNDER THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  AT THIS TIME ITS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN WHAT WILL TRIGGER ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAY 54
AND INTERSTATE 70.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BECOME A FOCUS...BUT ANY SMALL UPPER PERTURBATIONS RIPPLING THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD FIRE OFF STORMS THROUGH WHAT SHOULD BE A
WEAK CAP.  AGAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BECOME BETTER UNDERSTOOD
WITH LATER FORECAST.  AS OF NOW IM GOING TO INSERT SEVERE WORDING
INTO THE HWO FOR THE PERIODS SUNDAY AFTERNOON - MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
GFS AND ECMWF HAS GOOD CONSENSUS WITH RAIN EXITING THE REGION PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.  WILL KEEP SOME LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MONDAY NIGHT OUT EAST.  OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LOOK TO CLEAR UP BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS SPREADS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.  TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY ONLY WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HEADING INTO DAYS 6 AND 7...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SWIFT / ZONAL
UPPER FLOW IS SUGGESTED BY MEDIUM RANGE OUTPUT.  MODELS SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.  HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
PERIODS.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL PUSH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND HAVE A BRIEF MENTION OF THAT IN
BOTH TAFS. LOW CEILINGS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD SWEEP IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE PROGGED GFS AND WRF SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
THE UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...HARD TO FIND A REASON NOT HAVE IFR
CEILINGS IN BOTH TAFS FOR TONIGHT. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1258 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND
 DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

 AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

 CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
 THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
 ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS TO
 DEVELOP ON. MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
 WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
 A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AN
 AIRMASS LOADED IN MOISTURE CONTENT TO SURGE INTO SOUTHERN
 MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED
 WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND ALLOW IT TO
 BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.

 AS THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS OUT NEAR THE
 OZARKS REGION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
 BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
 WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IS
 FORECASTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS
 COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MARCH VEGETATION...RUNOFF WILL BE
 ENHANCED...LEADING TO AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

 EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHER LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES ARE URGED
 TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS ISSUED BY THE
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
 EPISODE OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
423 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

MOZ067-068-078-079-272200-
POLK MO-CEDAR MO-HICKORY MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
423 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN CEDAR...NORTHWESTERN
POLK...SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR AND WESTERN HICKORY COUNTIES UNTIL 500
PM CDT...

AT 422 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF HUMANSVILLE...OR 10 MILES NORTH
OF STOCKTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HUMANSVILLE BY 435 PM CDT.
  WEAUBLEAU BY 440 PM CDT.
  WHEATLAND BY 455 PM CDT.
  HERMITAGE BY 500 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF COLLINS...GERSTER...FLEMINGTON...ELKTON AND PITTSBURG
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

WISE