Severe Thunderstorm Warning 538, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 060817
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
217 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008

MOC043-209-060845-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0538.000000T0000Z-081106T0845Z/
STONE MO-CHRISTIAN MO-
216 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM CST
FOR CHRISTIAN AND STONE COUNTIES...

AT 215 AM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HIGHLANDVILLE TO SPOKANE TO
SILVER DOLLAR CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS 
OF 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SPARTA AND OZARK BY 225 AM CST.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTY WITH WIND SPEEDS IN 
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THE TOWNS OF LINDEN...GARRISON...OLDFIELD...CHADWICK...KELTNER...
ELKHEAD AND BRUNER ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3649 9360 3681 9355 3699 9350 3699 9333
      3709 9303 3708 9290 3682 9292 3681 9331
      3649 9333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0816Z 225DEG 74KT 3697 9335 3685 9328
          3672 9329

$$

CRAMER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 060831
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008

MOC209-060841-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0538.000000T0000Z-081106T0845Z/
STONE MO-
231 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR STONE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3681 9331 3699 9333 3700 9332 3709 9303
      3708 9290 3682 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0831Z 230DEG 46KT 3705 9319 3696 9313
          3686 9314

$$

MOC043-060845-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0538.000000T0000Z-081106T0845Z/
CHRISTIAN MO-
231 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM CST 
FOR CHRISTIAN COUNTY...

...A TORNADO WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM CST FOR 
CHRISTIAN COUNTY...

AT 225 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SELMORE TO CHRISTIAN
CENTER TO CHESTNUTRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN
CHRISTIAN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF GARRISON...OLDFIELD...
CHADWICK...BRUNER...KELTNER AND ELKHEAD.

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST
THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CST THURSDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3681 9331 3699 9333 3700 9332 3709 9303
      3708 9290 3682 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0831Z 230DEG 46KT 3705 9319 3696 9313
          3686 9314

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1110 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE STORM
MODE APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING TO MORE OR A SQUALL LINE AS STRONGER
STORM CORES MERGE ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR JOPLIN TO TULSA...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE MOST
RECENT SEVERE REPORTS HAVE COME OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STORM COMPLEX WITH 60 MPH WINDS AND DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
STILL EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE SQUALL LINE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

TERRY
&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

TONIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE CORN BELT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...MAKING IT TO
THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR GREATER DETAIL ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST. SPEAKING OF WINDS...WE HAVE NOT MET WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA UP TO THIS POINT. WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLING THE
WIND ADVISORY BY 4 PM.

THURSDAY...THAT FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE MORNING. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. WE MAY
ACTUALLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING AS A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO
THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY THEN BRING MORE CLOUDINESS INTO
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.
TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
COOLING LOW LEVELS. GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAV
AND MET. THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE WINDY AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS REMAIN RATHER TIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EFFICIENTLY MIX OUT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONE
MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL COME AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
LOW AND DRIVE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO UP ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AT OR BELOW ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE CHARTS CONTINUE TO FAVOR DIGGING OF
ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT TOWARDS THE OZARKS. STILL NOT A REAL GOOD
SIGNAL FOR TIMING...BUT FEEL THAT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
ARE WARRANTED STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG
WARM UPS AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR IN TAFS
THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON LATEST WIND PROFILER DATA. LINE OF
STORMS PERSISTING NEAR THE MO/KS BORDER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS SQUALL LINE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP...SO WILL CONTINUE VICINITY THUNDER WITH
EMBEDDED TEMPO FROM AROUND 06-10Z.

MAIN WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE
MORNING WITH DRY SLOT CLEARING OUT CLOUD COVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
658 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-070100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
658 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING...DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF QUARTERS. ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PUSH INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  AND WESTERN MISSOURI BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
  SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
  EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION:

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
  MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE
  THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 70 MPH WITH THESE
  STORMS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
  THREAT FOR TORNADOES HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT...BUT ISOLATED
  TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
  SHEAR...MAINLY WEST OF AN OSCEOLA TO CASSVILLE LINE.

  BY LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT
  WILL OVERTAKE THESE STORMS. A SOLID LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
  TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS
  REACHING THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
  STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT...DAMAGING STRAIGHT
  LINE WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING
  ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS...WHICH WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST
  BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS
  TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
  TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING WEST OF AN
  OSCEOLA TO CASSVILLE LINE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
  EAST OF THIS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1216 AM CST THU NOV 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 AM     HAIL             4 N SOUTH WEST CITY     36.57N 94.61W
11/06/2008  E1.25 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALSO ESTIMATED 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS.

&&

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 AM CST THU NOV 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 AM     HAIL             PINEVILLE               36.59N  94.38W
11/06/2008  E0.88 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKLE HAIL IN PINEVILLE ALSO NO POWER IN TOWN

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1241 AM CST THU NOV 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     HAIL             STOCKTON                37.70N  93.80W
11/06/2008  E0.88 INCH       CEDAR              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKLE HAIL REPORTED IN STOCKTON

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
113 AM CST THU NOV 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     HAIL             MONETT                  36.92N  93.93W
11/06/2008  E0.88 INCH       BARRY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
114 AM CST THU NOV 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 AM     TSTM WND GST     MONETT                  36.92N  93.93W
11/06/2008  E60 MPH          BARRY              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
135 AM CST THU NOV 06 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     TSTM WND GST     CASSVILLE               36.68N  93.87W
11/06/2008  E60 MPH          BARRY              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

HATCH