Severe Thunderstorm Warning 531, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
730 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES IS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71. THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING
INDICATES VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE RATHER STEEP. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0 TO 1 KM HELICITIES AROUND OR GREATER
THAN 400 M2/S2. THINKING IS THAT INSTABILITY REMAINED JUST A TOUCH
ON THE LOW SIDE FOR STORMS TO REMAIN DISCRETE. INTERESTINGLY...THE
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
REMAIN MORE DISCRETE WITH MLCAPES MORE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
RANGE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM NEAR CHANUTE KANSAS DOWN TOWARDS ADA
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE CONTINUES IN THE
LOW LEVELS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR...WITH RADAR ECHOES
RECENTLY INCREASING IN THIS AREA. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT LINE
SEGMENTS WILL BE THE MAIN STORM MODE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
AS THESE STORMS PUSH INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI. GIVEN SUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES REMAIN POSSIBLE. THUS...DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE WEST OF AN OSCEOLA TO CASSVILLE LINE. LARGE HAIL WILL
ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.

THE STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED BECOME DOMINANTLY LINEAR LATE THIS
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THEM.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THE STORMS
APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

TONIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE CORN BELT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...MAKING IT TO
THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR GREATER DETAIL ON THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST. SPEAKING OF WINDS...WE HAVE NOT MET WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA UP TO THIS POINT. WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLING THE
WIND ADVISORY BY 4 PM.

THURSDAY...THAT FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE MORNING. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. WE MAY
ACTUALLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING AS A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO
THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY THEN BRING MORE CLOUDINESS INTO
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.
TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
COOLING LOW LEVELS. GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAV
AND MET. THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE WINDY AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS REMAIN RATHER TIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EFFICIENTLY MIX OUT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONE
MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL COME AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
LOW AND DRIVE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO UP ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AT OR BELOW ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE CHARTS CONTINUE TO FAVOR DIGGING OF
ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT TOWARDS THE OZARKS. STILL NOT A REAL GOOD
SIGNAL FOR TIMING...BUT FEEL THAT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
ARE WARRANTED STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG
WARM UPS AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY WIND SHEAR AFTER 02Z AS
925 MB WINDS ARE ALREADY REACHING 40 KNOTS ON THE NEODESHA KANSAS
PROFILER. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALREADY ONGOING OVER EASTERN
KANSAS/NORTHEAST OK SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR NORTHEAST
TRACK...AFFECTING THE JOPLIN AIRPORT BY 02-03Z AND THE SPRINGFIELD
AIRPORT AROUND 06Z. EXPECT IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS WITH
THE STRONGEST CELLS AND WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUPS FOR A FEW HOURS
WITHIN THE 6-8 HOUR VICINITY TIME FRAME.

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST.
HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
658 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-070100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
658 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING...DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF QUARTERS. ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PUSH INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  AND WESTERN MISSOURI BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
  SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
  EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION:

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
  MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE
  THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 70 MPH WITH THESE
  STORMS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
  THREAT FOR TORNADOES HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT...BUT ISOLATED
  TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
  SHEAR...MAINLY WEST OF AN OSCEOLA TO CASSVILLE LINE.

  BY LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT
  WILL OVERTAKE THESE STORMS. A SOLID LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
  TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS
  REACHING THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE
  STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT...DAMAGING STRAIGHT
  LINE WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING
  ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS...WHICH WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST
  BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS
  TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
  TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING WEST OF AN
  OSCEOLA TO CASSVILLE LINE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
  EAST OF THIS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1032 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

KSZ101-060515-
CHEROKEE KS-
1032 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 1115 PM CST...

AT 1027 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSWEGO TO CHETOPA TO
WELCH...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OSWEGO TO CHETOPA TO 9 MILES
SOUTH OF CHETOPA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TREECE BY 1045 PM CST.
  COLUMBUS BY 1050 PM CST.
  BAXTER SPRINGS BY 1055 PM CST.
  BAXTER SPRINGS BY 1100 PM CST.
  GALENA BY 1110 PM CST.

THE TOWNS OF SHERWIN...STIPPVILLE...SKIDMORE...NEUTRAL...RIVERTON...
LOWELL...CRESTLINE AND LAWTON ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

ANGLE