Severe Thunderstorm Warning 527, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT APPROACHED FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  THE COOL FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.  WHILE ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TODAY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ZONE OF BAROCLINICITY IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY
FROM ZERO UP TO TWO INCHES...DEPENDING UPON HOW THE STORMS DEVELOP
AND TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

FOR POPS TODAY...I FOLLOWED THE MET GUIDANCE MUCH CLOSER THAN THE
MAV.  THE MAV BASICALLY HAD ZERO POPS OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...WHILE THE MET FOCUSED CHANCE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR.  THINK THIS SOLUTION HAS A MUCH BETTER HANDLE
ON THE ONGOING SITUATION AS THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THIS MORNING.  BY THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
HAVE SHIFTED INTO ARKANSAS.  EVNETUALLY THE FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS TO SPREAD IN.

THIS NORTHERN CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DRY AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...TO MID
60S IN FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH RIDGING OUT EAST...LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE WEST.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK INTO THE 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS.  AS OF NOW THERE REMAINS NO
ORGANIZED SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE GUSTAV IS FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST SOMETIME BY MID WEEK.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH SHIFTING THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV DIRECTLY INTO THE
OZARKS.  THE GFS STALLS GUSTAV OUT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.  WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
ORDER TO DISCERN WHETHER OR NOT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE SOMETIME
LATE NEXT WEEK.  STAY TUNED.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOST ITS MOMENTUM BEFORE REACHING THE JOPLIN AND
SPRINGFIELD TERMINALS. WILL KEEP SOME VICINITY STORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL MO AND EASTERN
KANSAS.

WILL BRING GRADUAL WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE TERMINALS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.

TERRY

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
430 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-300930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
430 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
 LINE FROM FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO ROUND SPRING MISSOURI WILL RECEIVE
 THE GREATEST FREQUENCY OF STORMS.  A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
 CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL CAN NOT
 BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
140 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

MOZ056-057-069-290745-
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-
140 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN CAMDEN...SOUTHEASTERN
MORGAN AND SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 134 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAURIE...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF OSAGE
BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 23 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
219 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

MOZ070-081-290800-
LACLEDE MO-PULASKI MO-
219 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN LACLEDE AND PULASKI
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 213 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CROCKER...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
444 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

MOZ066-291030-
VERNON MO-
444 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL VERNON COUNTY UNTIL 530 AM
CDT...

AT 438 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF FORT SCOTT...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
552 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

MOZ089-291145-
DADE MO-
552 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DADE COUNTY UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

AT 546 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOCKWOOD...OR 5 MILES WEST OF GREENFIELD...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

DSA