Flash Flood Warning 169, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 290338
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1038 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

MOC161-290900-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0169.000000T0000Z-080829T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PHELPS MO-
1038 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
PHELPS COUNTY...

AT 1030 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. SEVERAL ROADS HAVE QUICKLY BECOME FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE 
THROUGHOUT THE CITY OF ROLLA...AS WELL AS HIGHWAY BB NEAR ST. JAMES.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...ROLLA...
DOOLITTLE...NEWBURG AND ST. JAMES. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH
FLOODING.

RADAR ESTIMATES THAT MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN A 
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO 
CAUSE RAPID RISES IN CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE 
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AFTER DARK AS 
FLOODED ROADWAYS ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

LAT...LON 3778 9178 3784 9203 3801 9203 3801 9197
      3804 9195 3804 9193 3806 9191 3805 9164
      3816 9164 3816 9154 3816 9153 3779 9153

$$

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 290553
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

MOC161-290900-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0169.000000T0000Z-080829T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PHELPS MO-
1253 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
PHELPS COUNTY...

AT 1245 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED ACROSS 
THE WARNED AREA. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT AN 
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN PHELPS COUNTY SINCE 11 PM.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE 
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS 
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY 
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3778 9178 3784 9203 3801 9203 3801 9197
      3804 9195 3804 9193 3806 9191 3805 9164
      3816 9164 3816 9154 3816 9153 3779 9153

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
923 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING A DOWNWARD TREND IN TERMS OF
SEVERITY. WHILE MLCAPE VALUES ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF 3000 TO 4000
J/KG OUT AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY...THE GUST FRONT HAS BEGUN TO
OUTRUN THE CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE
CONVECTION IS ALSO BEGINNING TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE BEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LESS
THAN 20 KTS. A FEW CELLS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS PHELPS AND PULASKI COUNTIES.
THIS ACTIVITY HAD SHOWN A FEW SIGNS OF PROMISE BUT IS LACKING THE
SHEAR TO ORGANIZE INTO ANY SEVERE THREAT AT THE MOMENT.

THE STRONGEST AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ISOLATED ITSELF FROM THE
REST OF THE LINE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY
BETTER WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT IT ALSO HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
DECREASING INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ITS GUST FRONT ALSO
APPEARS TO BE RUNNING OUT AHEAD.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND MAY PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE CENTRAL CWA
OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWS. TEMPERATURES AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR GUST FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL THROUGH 12Z.

BARJENBRUCH
&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/HIGHLIGHTS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEAL
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
WHERE SHORT LIVED ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING. THE MAIN COLD
FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AS IT IS JUST ENTERING EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE
AS ML CAPES RANGE FROM 3000-4000J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS LIMITING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...BUT WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI SOME SHORT
LIVED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN CWA LATER THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET...BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE
IN PLACE FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A LOW LEVEL JET TO KEEP THE CONVECTION ON GOING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD
AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE IF IT DOES NOT DIE OUT ALTOGETHER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA.

A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT...LEAVING SATURDAY TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WISE

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING NOTED OVER THE WEST.

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE THE
STRONGEST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THIS TIME...KEEPING THE
STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. ENERGY
EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL HEAD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE
AREA...BUT IT QUICKLY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...
STALLING JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...
ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF GUSTAV.

THE EVENTUAL PATH OF GUSTAV WILL IN NO SMALL PART BE AIDED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. AS SUCH...THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD FOR
LOCATION OF THIS STORM HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
CURRENT ENVELOPE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR GUSTAV ARE EYEING A
LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THOSE WITH HOLIDAY
WEEKEND PLANS IN ANY AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN
INTO A STRONG HURRICANE.

ANY AFFECTS GUSTAV MAY HAVE ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE
GOVERNED BY ITS EVENTUAL PATH...WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT BEST THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE. THE FARTHER WEST GUSTAV TRAVELS...THE BETTER
CHANCE WE MAY BE AFFECTED LOCALLY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
FEATURE CLOSELY IN FUTURE FORECASTS. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND WETTER FOR THE WED/THUR FORECAST.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI PRETTY MUCH ECHO FREE
ON RADAR AT THIS TIME. WITH SUNSET...BELIEVE CUMULUS WILL PRETTY
MUCH DIE OUT. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARDS THE TAF
SITES BRINGING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE TAF SITES FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
712 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-300015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
712 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS TAKEN PLACE ALONG A COLD
  FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN
  MISSOURI. AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT... SCATTERED
  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS... WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PUSH INTO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
  HIGHWAY 60 THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF QUARTERS. THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
  DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY AS THE
  FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING NORTH OF AN
  OSCEOLA TO OSAGE BEACH LINE...AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
  ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BARJENBRUCH