Severe Thunderstorm Warning 512, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
634 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEAL WITH
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BIG
TEMPERATURE/PRECIP BUST POTENTIAL THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TO NEAR KANSAS CITY...THEN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. NOT A
LOT OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AS OF YET. TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE CWA A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THIS TIME
WITH LOW TO MID 90S AND CLEAR SKIES. MORNING SGF SOUNDING SHOWING
OVER 5000 J/KG CAPES WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...SO THE
ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. BELIEVE OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE
THESE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING SOME CELLS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.

FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS THE FRONT LAYS OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. GFS
SHOWING SIGNS OF AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING FROM THIS
SYSTEM AS HPC GUIDANCE SHOWING WIDESPREAD HALF INCH QPF AMOUNTS.
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWATS NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2
INCHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. NIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER FOR
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING PACKAGE. ONE OTHER ITEM TO MENTION IS THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WIDE RANGE IN
ADVERTISED MOS MAX TEMPERATURES AS MET GUIDANCE GOING FOR MID 80S
AND MAV MID 90S. CERTAINLY DO NOT THINK WE WILL GET BACK INTO THE
MID 90S WITH PRECIP AND CLOUD COVERAGE...SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE TWO AND WENT LOW 90S WEDNESDAY AND MID 80S THURSDAY.

BOTH MODELS PUSH FRONT SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY AND GFS SHOWS SIGNS ONCE AGAIN OF AN MCS DEVELOPING
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS...THEN MOVES THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI/SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WENT WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE JLN AND SGF
AERODROMES. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
THIS EVENING. MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTHEAST OF THE AERODROMES. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHOULD
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
EPISODIC BOUTS OF STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE USED VCTS TO COVER THIS AND
LET FUTURE FORECASTS REFINE TIMING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE EXCEPT WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
  GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
  MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO SALEM THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 TONIGHT.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO 105 TO 112 THIS AFTERNOON. AN
  EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY FOR THE
  ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

  DISCUSSION:

  A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS
  AFTERNOON AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
  CENTRAL MISSOURI. A MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS
  STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
  HOWEVER...THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH OVER
  CENTRAL MISSOURI TO ALLOW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
  DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY
  TO FRIDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
  THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR COMMUNITIES NORTH OF A LINE
 FROM OSCEOLA TO SALEM AFTER 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
 EVENING HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
728 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0727 PM     HAIL             2 NE TUNAS              37.87N 93.00W
08/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       DALLAS             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
732 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     HAIL             BRANCH                  37.91N  93.00W
08/05/2008  E0.88 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL HAIL ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. WIND SPEED UNKNOWN
            AT THIS TIME.

&&

GAGAN