Flash Flood Warning 164, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH HEAVY PRECIP TONIGHT ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO OSAGE BEACH BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. CLOUD COVER FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER
MOST OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN
CONSIDERABLY. THOUGH WE ARE SEEING WEST PLAINS BREAKING 90 AND
JOPLIN GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH CLEARING SKIES. DECAYING
MCS EVIDENT OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CWA. RADAR VIRTUALLY ECHO FREE AT PRESENT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. RUC MODEL INDICATING CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT AND
EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. KANSAS MCS SHOULD BE INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING FOR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT REDEVELOPMENT.
LACKING APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT WE ARE SEEING A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ON PROFILER WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND
FAIRLY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN
KANSAS. WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL
COUNTIES IN THE CWA. DO BELIEVE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/SOUTHEAST KANSAS INITIALLY AND THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
OVERNIGHT WITH A LONG/SKINNY CAPE SIGNATURE WHICH INDICATES HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. ALL COUNTIES IN THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING
NEAR THE ARKANSAS LINE AS THERE COULD BE THE CHANCE OF THE FRONT
SLOWING.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE STATE AND UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN BETWEEN 14 AND 16C. GFS WAS
FORECASTING MORNING LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY
MORNING. BELIEVE THIS MAY BE TOO LOW AS MAV HAS HAD A COOL BIAS ON
LOW TEMPERATURES.

NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER STILL LOOKS TO BE COMING INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN
KANSAS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS FEATURE. KEPT CHANCE
POPS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AGREEMENT IN MODELS AND
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REMAINS GOOD. NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO A COOLER/WETTER PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...OVERNIGHT MCS HAS DECAYED OVER THE AREA WITH
DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF
THE CWA INCLUDING BOTH JLN/SGF TERMINAL LOCATIONS. THIS HAS SLOWED
THE TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA. STILL
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT BOTH JLN/SGF TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH LOCATIONS WITH THE CONVECTION.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
105 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
105 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60
  MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
  AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
  LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

 DISCUSSION:

 ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH A SLOW MOVING
 COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO
 PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
 INTO THURSDAY. THE STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
 DELAYED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER FROM THE EARLY
 MORNING STORMS DECREASES...AND ALLOWS THE AIRMASS TO BECOME MORE
 UNSTABLE.

 STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
 TONIGHT....PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
 FLOODING...AS WELL AS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. A FLASH
 FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
 AND THE ENTIRE MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AS
 THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY
 RAINFALL.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEST OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO
 SPRINGFIELD TO BRANSON AROUND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR
 COUNTIES EAST OF THIS LINE BY MID EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB