Severe Thunderstorm Warning 443, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1219 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...

SEVERAL AREAS OF INTEREST ARE CURRENTLY IN ACTION THIS EVENING.
THE FIRST AREA IS THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA. THIS ACTIVITY DID NOT
BACK BUILD INTO SGF CWA AND HAS LEFT THE AIRMASS QUITE JUICY.

A SECOND LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IOWA SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SAINT JOSEPH
MISSOURI AREA HAS BEEN QUITE INTENSE AT TIMES. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO ENTER THE
CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THIS ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY HAS MORE OF AN EASTERLY PROGRESSION THAN MODELS
PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...BUT HAS EXPERIENCED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OVER THE PAST HOUR. WHETHER OR NOT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PROGRESS INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AS A SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
SEEMS TO DEPEND LARGELY ON FRONTAL PROGRESS...AND WHETHER OR NOT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST CAN HELP ACCELERATE THE
SYSTEM. STEERING WINDS ARE LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT ITSELF
OVER MUCH OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AT THIS SLOWER PACE. THIS...ALONG WITH
VEERING SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST...HAS DOUBLED TO
DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER KANSAS.
WHILE CIN IS MINIMAL IN THIS ZONE...STORMS ARE HAVING TROUBLE
INITIATING AT THE MOMENT. STILL BELIEVE THAT THIS FRONTAL BASED
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN CWA...LIKELY BY 1 AM.

THIRD AREA OF INTEREST IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A COUPLE
OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. WHILE THEY HAVE
EXPERIENCED LITTLE MOVEMENT...MAY BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CORFIDI VECTORS...MID LEVEL STEERING
WINDS...AND SHEAR VECTORS INDICATE A PRIMARILY SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION AWAY FROM SGF CWA IF THE CELLS CAN INDEED MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.

A SLIGHT THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO
INDUCE HEIGHT FALLS...BUT THIS THREAT MAY DECREASE AFTER 9 OR 10
PM AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES AND A BIT MORE INHIBITION SETTLES IN.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DEALS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...TURNING TO BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

CURRENTLY CLOUD COVER FROM LAST NIGHTS MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH
KANSAS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND HAS SLOWED THE WARMING
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH ML-CAPES OVER 2000 J/KG
WITH NO ML-CIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THE MORNING MCS WORKED THE
WESTERN CWA OVER A LITTLE...WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND MORE OF A
CAP OVER THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. THIS IS WHERE NO CAP EXISTS AND THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY ARE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING IS EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS AREA FROM
BOTH THE MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND THE MCV THAT
IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES...AND
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...LIKELY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...ALLOWING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. A SQUALL LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP...WITH VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH
POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS LINE. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN KICK THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING. STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA WITH NO STRONG
SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. LATE IN THE WORKWEEK AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COVERED
THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
STORMS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THESE
STORMS. LINGERING STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL A COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
739 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-290045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
739 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...INCREASING WIND
SHEAR...AMPLE INSTABILITY...AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CAUSE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE OZARKS.

SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH...HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LEADING TO ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO VIENNA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR ALL OF THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT THE SEVERITY WILL
LIKELY DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE MISSOURI
ARKANSAS BORDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AROUND MIDNIGHT NORTH OF A LINE
 FROM NEVADA TO VIENNA AND FOR COMMUNITIES FURTHER SOUTH DURING
 THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1112 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

MOZ056-280445-
MORGAN MO-
1112 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY UNTIL 1145 PM
CDT...

AT 1108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SMITHTON...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SEDALIA...MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN MORGAN
COUNTY.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BARJENBRUCH