River Flood Warning 110, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING CONTINUES.

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTH TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
MEANWHILE...OTHER WEAKER CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. EXPECT THE MAIN CONVECTION TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
SEEPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH SUNRISE. IT IS VERY
POSSIBLE THAT THE LEADING GUST FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE CURRENT
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION WILL
CLEAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
THE SMALLER SCALE...WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAMPED OUT ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TO COVER MORNING CONVECTION. WOULD THEN EXPECT AT LEAST
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. MAIN THREAT WITH
THE STORMS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE WIND AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. MAIN THREATS HERE WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

STORMS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OUT OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER THIS
EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING. CONSIDERED FOG THREAT...BUT WE MAY BE
A TOUCH ON THE BREEZY SIDE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN PROTECTED AREAS.

A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED SOUTH. NEXT DECENT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION MAY
BE TOWARDS MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE REGION.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COVERED
THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
STORMS. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THESE
STORMS. LINGERING STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL A COLD FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
557 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY
  RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
  ACROSS ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

  DISCUSSION:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS
  MUCH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOME OF
  THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES...
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
  FLOODING.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS THEN EXPECTED FROM
  THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
  THROUGH THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
  WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
  AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY
  INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
  EVENING ACROSS ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

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