Severe Thunderstorm Warning 422, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1230 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE: CONVECTION BLOSSOMED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH MORE THAN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFT
POTENTIAL. RUC EARLIER INDICATED MLCAPES OF 2000 J/KG OVE THE
WESTERN CWFA. SHEAR STILL ADEQUATE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF OF
MIDWESTERN TROUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS...BUT MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME WITH INCREASING UPPER RIDGING LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE OUT SHORTLY NO
DOUBT.  STORMS ALSO TRAINING WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING BACK
BUILDING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. DSA

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...MINOR SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH SW MO THIS MORNING
PRODUCING MAINLY CLOUD COVER...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FROM TIME
TO TIME. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...THOUGH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE RETURNING TO
AREAS NEAR THE MO/KS BORDER. A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BEST SEEN
IN 925MB PROFILER PLAN VIEW...IS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL KS INTO
CENTRAL MO. PREVIOUS CLOUD COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
HAVE RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY THAN WAS OBSERVED AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR IS
RATHER VOID OF CU IN SE KS/SW MO. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY. LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION IS NOTED...THUS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE HOLDING US BACK. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GARNERED NEAR
THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THIS EVENING. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED...THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE LONG LIVED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER EXTREME SE
KS AND FAR SW MO WHERE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD TAKE ON A MORE NW TO SE
ORIENTATION.

LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN LIFT IN SE
KS/FAR SW MO. WHATEVER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER INSTABILITY IS SPENT. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER KS THAT MIGHT FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR SW CWA. THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IF EVERYTHING SETS UP JUST RIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS IS MORE OF A MESOSCALE FORECAST ISSUE AND CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PINPOINT ANY AREAS MORE PRONE TO FLASH
FLOODING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE REGION WILL BE PRONE TO PERIODIC EPISODES OF
CONVECTION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST QUITE TRICKY.
LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER FAR SW MO MONDAY IS ONE FOCUSING MECHANISM
TO KEEP AN EYE ON. ANOTHER WILL BE A SHORTWAVE CUTTING THROUGH THE
FLOW TUE/TUE NIGHT. AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SIGNS OF A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FROM
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...12Z SUITE OF MODELS OFFER LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL DEALING WITH SOME FORM OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT MID LEVEL WARMING WILL BE NUDGING
TOWARD THE AREA...THOUGH NOTHING ABNORMAL OR EXTREME. AS A
RESULT...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OR THE
PASSING OVERNIGHT MCS. KEPT POPS RIGHT NEAR CLIMO. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY EDGE UPWARD. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY WARMER TEMPS IN THIS
AREA...WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S COMMON.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER EARLY IN THE
FORECAST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING INFLUENCE. MAY SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP WEST OF JOPLIN LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET OVERRUNNING
A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH KANSAS...BUT WILL HOLD MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NOW. COULD SEE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL WAIT TO LOOK OVER NEW 00Z MODEL DATA BEFORE
INCLUDING IN TAFS.

TERRY

&&

.CLIMATE...

SPRINGFIELD CONTINUES TO CLIMB IN THE RECORD BOOK OF THE WETTEST
JUNES ON RECORD WITH JUNE 2008 NOW RANKED THIRD...WITH EIGHT DAYS
LEFT IN THE MONTH. JOPLIN...WEST PLAINS...AND ROLLA VICHY REMAIN
SEVERAL INCHES AWAY FROM CRACKING THE TOP 10 WETTEST JUNE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

SPRINGFIELD WETTEST JUNES

RANK     PRECIPITATION       YEAR

1        12.27              1928
2        11.31              1935...1975
3        11.22              2008
4        10.96              1948
5        10.08              1932

LOCATION     JUNE 2008 PRECIPITATION     10TH WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD

JOPLIN       6.34                       9.21 1951
WEST PLAINS  2.80                       5.93 1958
ROLLA VICHY  2.76                       7.03 1957

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
122 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-240630-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
122 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SOUTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM NEVADA TO BOLIVAR TO ALTON.

MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WINDS HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
REPORTS OF UP TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
SOME STORMS. THE HIGHEST STORM POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR FROM GIRARD
AND COLUMBUS SOUTHEAST TO THE BRANSON AND GAINESVILLE AREAS. THE
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 7 AM.

TRAINING STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 7 AM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
121 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 AM     HAIL             FORSYTH                 36.68N  93.12W
06/23/2008  E0.88 INCH       TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
127 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 AM     HAIL             HALLOWELL               37.17N  95.00W
06/23/2008  E1.00 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
129 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 AM     HAIL             1 SW JOPLIN             37.07N  94.53W
06/23/2008  E2.75 INCH       JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
130 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 AM     HAIL             2 W MONETT              36.92N  93.96W
06/23/2008  E1.75 INCH       BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
137 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     HAIL             HOLLISTER               36.62N  93.22W
06/23/2008  E1.00 INCH       TANEY              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 AM     HAIL             SCAMMON                 37.28N  94.82W
06/23/2008  E1.75 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DSA