Severe Thunderstorm Warning 413, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 230348
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1048 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

MOC043-230415-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0413.000000T0000Z-080623T0415Z/
CHRISTIAN MO-
1048 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY...

AT 1045 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPARTA...OR 8 MILES EAST OF OZARK...MOVING
EAST AT 16 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF BRUNER...KELTNER
AND ELKHEAD.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...IF YOU
ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3686 9292 3691 9314 3707 9312 3707 9290
      3701 9291 3700 9291 3687 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 284DEG 14KT 3699 9305

$$

TERRY

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 230359
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1059 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

MOC043-230408-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0413.000000T0000Z-080623T0415Z/
CHRISTIAN MO-
1059 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER 
CONSIDERED TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THEREFORE THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 


LAT...LON 3686 9292 3691 9314 3707 9312 3707 9290
      3701 9291 3700 9291 3687 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 284DEG 14KT 3698 9300

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
659 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN HARD PRESSED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH
ABUNDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND DECENT DESTABILIZATION. THE
LIMITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE MID LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AS BEHIND
EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
WILL BE UPDATING THE HWO TO REMOVE MENTION OF AFTERNOON STORMS.
STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LATE TONIGHT WHEN LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND RIDES OVER FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
MO. SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TERRY
&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...MINOR SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH SW MO THIS MORNING
PRODUCING MAINLY CLOUD COVER...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FROM TIME
TO TIME. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...THOUGH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE RETURNING TO
AREAS NEAR THE MO/KS BORDER. A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...BEST SEEN
IN 925MB PROFILER PLAN VIEW...IS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL KS INTO
CENTRAL MO. PREVIOUS CLOUD COVERAGE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
HAVE RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY THAN WAS OBSERVED AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AT THIS HOUR IS
RATHER VOID OF CU IN SE KS/SW MO. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY. LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION IS NOTED...THUS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE HOLDING US BACK. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GARNERED NEAR
THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THIS EVENING. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED...THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE LONG LIVED CONVECTION WILL BE OVER EXTREME SE
KS AND FAR SW MO WHERE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD TAKE ON A MORE NW TO SE
ORIENTATION.

LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN LIFT IN SE
KS/FAR SW MO. WHATEVER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER INSTABILITY IS SPENT. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER KS THAT MIGHT FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR SW CWA. THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IF EVERYTHING SETS UP JUST RIGHT.
HOWEVER THIS IS MORE OF A MESOSCALE FORECAST ISSUE AND CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PINPOINT ANY AREAS MORE PRONE TO FLASH
FLOODING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE REGION WILL BE PRONE TO PERIODIC EPISODES OF
CONVECTION. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST QUITE TRICKY.
LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER FAR SW MO MONDAY IS ONE FOCUSING MECHANISM
TO KEEP AN EYE ON. ANOTHER WILL BE A SHORTWAVE CUTTING THROUGH THE
FLOW TUE/TUE NIGHT. AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK WITH SIGNS OF A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FROM
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...12Z SUITE OF MODELS OFFER LITTLE CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL DEALING WITH SOME FORM OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT MID LEVEL WARMING WILL BE NUDGING
TOWARD THE AREA...THOUGH NOTHING ABNORMAL OR EXTREME. AS A
RESULT...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OR THE
PASSING OVERNIGHT MCS. KEPT POPS RIGHT NEAR CLIMO. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY EDGE UPWARD. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY WARMER TEMPS IN THIS
AREA...WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S COMMON.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER EARLY IN THE
FORECAST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING INFLUENCE. MAY SEE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP WEST OF JOPLIN LATE TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET OVERRUNNING
A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH KANSAS...BUT WILL HOLD MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NOW. COULD SEE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL WAIT TO LOOK OVER NEW 00Z MODEL DATA BEFORE
INCLUDING IN TAFS.

TERRY

&&

.CLIMATE...

SPRINGFIELD CONTINUES TO CLIMB IN THE RECORD BOOK OF THE WETTEST
JUNES ON RECORD WITH JUNE 2008 NOW RANKED THIRD...WITH EIGHT DAYS
LEFT IN THE MONTH. JOPLIN...WEST PLAINS...AND ROLLA VICHY REMAIN
SEVERAL INCHES AWAY FROM CRACKING THE TOP 10 WETTEST JUNE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

SPRINGFIELD WETTEST JUNES

RANK     PRECIPITATION       YEAR

1        12.27              1928
2        11.31              1935...1975
3        11.22              2008
4        10.96              1948
5        10.08              1932

LOCATION     JUNE 2008 PRECIPITATION     10TH WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD

JOPLIN       6.34                       9.21 1951
WEST PLAINS  2.80                       5.93 1958
ROLLA VICHY  2.76                       7.03 1957

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
727 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-240030-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
727 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...WIND
 GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT
 MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PITTSBURG KANSAS TO AVA.

DISCUSSION:

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS A BOUNDARY SETS UP
 ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND A LOW LEVEL
 JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTERACTS WITH THIS
 BOUNDARY. INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF
 THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD RISK
 ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH
 THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
 MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
 EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
758 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             CLEVER                  37.03N  93.47W
06/22/2008  E0.25 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   PUBLIC

&&

KARDELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
810 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

MOZ095-230145-
CHRISTIAN MO-
810 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTY UNTIL 845
PM CDT...

AT 808 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF HIGHLANDVILLE...MOVING EAST
AT 22 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHLANDVILLE BY 825 PM CDT.
  6 MILES SOUTH OF OZARK BY 830 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF SELMORE AND CHRISTIAN CENTER ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
814 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     HAIL             4 S NIXA                36.99N  93.29W
06/22/2008  E0.70 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   PUBLIC

            MIXED SIZES OF PEA TO DIME SIZE

&&

KARDELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
832 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

MOZ095-230145-
CHRISTIAN MO-
832 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 830 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTY HAD WEAKENED AND WERE
NO LONGER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50
MPH.

TERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1023 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

MOZ095-230400-
CHRISTIAN MO-
1023 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY UNTIL 1100
PM CDT...

AT 1019 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OZARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 29 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SPARTA BY 1030 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF OLDFIELD...BRUNER...CHADWICK...KELTNER AND GARRISON ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

TERRY